Why the Oilers need to prioritize a more balanced offensive forward group

In those playoffs, the Malkin line out-scored opponents 11 to 8, and Pittsburgh’s third line of Nick Bonino, Phil Kessel, and Carl Hagelin out-scored opponents 15 to 8. That third line in particular, often nicknamed the HBK line, was simply outstanding in that run and will likely go down as one of the most impactful playoff third lines of all time. In total, the Penguins’ bottom-nine held a 34 to 24 goal differential.

Thus, even though the Penguins were out-scored at 5-on-5 with Crosby, they heavily out-scored the opposition without Crosby, and that, combined with their top-notch special teams (where Crosby had the most impact), resulted in the Stanley Cup.

So, how does all this connect to the Oilers’ cup final losses?

In a nutshell, what made the Florida Panthers’ forward group so lethal is the defensive shutdown ability of Aleksander Barkov in combination with the offensive aptitude of their middle-six. Paul Maurice utilizes Barkov (plus the Gustav Forsling pair) to match up against and shut down the opposition’s top offensive line, which then opens up space for Florida’s second line, with Sam Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk, and third line, with Brad Marchand, to do damage offensively.

Throughout the past two Cup Finals, McDavid’s most common 5-on-5 opponent has been Barkov. In the minutes McDavid played against him, he has been on-ice for a mere two goals, averaging a measly 1.18 goals per hour. This is particularly why Edmonton struggled so much to score on the road. In Rogers Place, the Oilers averaged 3.1 goals per hour at 5v5, compared to just 1.3 at Amerant Bank Arena, where Maurice had last change and would hard-match Barkov against McDavid.

One would think that Leon Draisaitl centring the second line would make a significant difference here. However, in the 2024 SCF, Draisaitl played through a reportedly broken finger and rib, and so the second line was quite ineffective as a result. 

And in the 2025 SCF, Draisaitl’s most common linemate at 5-on-5 was… McDavid. Though they would start games on their separate lines, Kris Knoblauch frequently paired them together as the game went on, especially when Florida had the lead (which, unfortunately, was for most of the series). 

Now, in regards to the Oilers’ depth, in all fairness, they took a massive step forward this postseason. With both McDavid and Draisaitl off-ice in the 2025 playoffs overall, they out-scored opponents 25 to 14, an incredible 64 percent goal differential. For reference, it was at 38% last playoffs. This is an extraordinarily large improvement. 

That all being said, this number is considerably inflated by their performance in earlier rounds, where they went on a bit of an unsustainable heater, one that was likely never going to sustain heading into the finals. And in the finals specifically, the team without McDavid and Draisaitl scored four goals for and allowed four against, with one of those goals for being Podkolzin’s last-minute tally in Game 6 when the score was already 5-0.

Of course, this is not intended to excuse McDavid and Draisaitl’s performances. Simply put, they had to be much better in the cup-clinching games. There’s no other way to put it.

Still, I believe there are two major lessons Edmonton can learn from the cup finals moving forward. One lesson is, of course, to simply try to stay healthy; having Draisaitl at 100% in 2024 and a healthy Zach Hyman in 2025 could have made a monumental difference. But the other lesson is to prioritize a less top-heavy offensive team.

Ultimately, a vital factor behind Florida’s victories was simply that they found a way to slow down the McDavid line at 5-on-5, and Edmonton’s remaining lines couldn’t make up the difference offensively, especially with Draisaitl so often being paired with McDavid. The lesson to be learned is that if the opposition can just find a way to slow down McDavid’s line, victory is extremely likely for them. Of course, that’s much easier said than done – most teams can’t slow him down – but the Florida Panthers aren’t “most teams.” And so, even if Edmonton’s current strategy is enough to win against the majority of teams in the league, they can be neutralized if they face a team with an elite shutdown line. 

This is especially something they should keep in mind as Draisaitl turns 30 in October and McDavid is 29 in January. Based on historical age curves, you can obviously still expect elite production from them, but the harsh reality is that we may have already seen their absolute peak, which is all the more reason to prioritize a forward core less reliant on their production.

There are a couple of things Edmonton could (and should) do to accomplish this. Firstly, the most obvious one is to permanently keep Draisaitl at 2C. 

Simply put, the Oilers are most difficult to play against when McDavid and Draisaitl are centring their own lines. Of course, they can still get shifts here and there after a penalty-kill or late in a third period when the team needs a goal, but on average, they should spend at least ~80% of their 5-on-5 ice time apart. Edmonton also needs to figure out which lines work and which don’t during the regular season, rather than experimenting with unknown combinations in the playoffs.

Furthermore, there should be significant emphasis on creating a more offensive third line. Credit where credit’s due, Adam Henrique had some remarkable defensive results, but I would still try to aim higher and construct a third line that can be a consistent and legitimate offensive threat. 

There are multiple ways to go about this. One of them could be to target a play-driving forward, such as Nikolaj Ehlers, for instance, and deploy him on the third line, attempting to replicate what the 2016 Penguins did with Kessel and what the Panthers just did with Marchand. The Oilers, with their version of HBK could be nearly unstoppable. However, whether the Oilers can fit Ehlers or a forward of similar calibre onto the roster cap-wise is a big question, especially with the Evan Bouchard contract looming.

Perhaps the more realistic option is to build a third line around Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. It is worth noting that, in a decent sample in the regular season, the line of RNH, Vasily Podkolzin, and Viktor Arvidsson produced strong results. While it may be difficult to exactly replicate something as great as HBK here, there’s still potential for an extremely effective third-line if built properly.

And finally, there should be an emphasis on speed and youth. I think the Oilers’ age was on display in these cup finals, and a speedier, younger forward core could make all the difference.

All things considered, Stan Bowman clearly stated in the Oilers’ exit interviews that there would be changes to the forward group this off-season. Let’s wait and see how the management decides to approach this.