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Will Canadiens’ Ivan Demidov Win the Calder Trophy?

Originally posted on NHL Trade Talk | By Old Prof | Last updated Jan 3, 2026 6:24 PM ET

Every Calder conversation eventually comes to the same question. Do you reward a rookie’s impact, or do you reward his circumstance? What about his ice time, usage, and opportunity? The neatness of the spreadsheet versus what the old eye test keeps telling you.

And that’s where the Montreal Canadiens’ young star Ivan Demidov refuses to go away.

Bottom Line? The Canadiens’ Demidov Produces Points

Demidov has scored 10 goals and 25 assists, and he’s doing it in just a little over 15 minutes a night. Over 40 games, that’s 72 points on pace—a rare feat for a rookie these days. Not many rookies manage numbers like that. He’s not getting top-line treatment. That’s “earn it every shift” ice time. You don’t stumble into those numbers by accident.

Montreal isn’t built around Demidov. Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield still do the heavy lifting, while he lives in the shadows. He gets second power-play looks and short minutes where he’s asked to make something happen. Then, back to the bench.

Demidov Isn’t a Franchise Saviour, Yet

Now, the analytics crowd will tell you his on-ice impact doesn’t scream “franchise saviour.” Fair enough. His on-off numbers are solid, not earth-shattering. His Wins Above Replacement (WAR) sits just over 1.01, which is excellent for a rookie forward, but not jaw-dropping. But here’s the part those numbers quietly admit: you can only tilt the ice so much when you’re playing 15 minutes a night. His usage doesn’t favour his success.

If Demidov were getting 18 or 19 minutes, first-unit power-play time, tougher matchups? That gap widens. Not because the numbers alone predict it, but because history shows players like him usually rise with more ice time. Players with this kind of touch usually don’t plateau when you give them more rope. They pull.

The Calder Trophy Is Only One Snapshot for an NHL Rookie

The Calder isn’t a lifetime achievement award—it’s a snapshot of a rookie’s season. And right now, the snapshot shows a rookie who scores like a top-line forward while being treated like a middle-six apprentice. That matters.

There may be another rookie having a generational year. That happens. But Demidov’s case isn’t about being louder—it’s about being relentless. He’s forcing his way into the conversation shift by shift, despite the constraints, despite the depth chart, despite the conservative deployment.

If the Calder is given to the player who did the most with what they were given, Ivan Demidov is in the conversation. Now voters need to recognize he’s already arrived.

This article first appeared on NHL Trade Talk and was syndicated with permission.

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