Will the Penguins contend for the playoffs?

The Pittsburgh Penguins entered the season with modest playoff hopes, at best. After 17 games, they sit sixth in the Eastern Conference with a 9-5-3 record. Although they’ve cooled off recently, they remain competitive and are dealing with numerous injuries to Rickard Rakell, Justin Brazeau, Filip Hallander, Tristan Jarry, Joel Blomqvist, Caleb Jones, and Noel Acciari.

Some might look at that list and dismiss the talent of those players, but it means they are without four regular forwards, one of their top six defensemen, and half their goaltending tandem. That’s a significant hurdle early in the season, especially for a team whose depth isn’t particularly strong. It raises the question: Can Pittsburgh weather this storm and realistically compete for a playoff spot this year?

The simple answer is yes. The talent level is aging, but it remains. The Penguins continue to rely on Sidney Crosby (11 goals and 20 points in 17 GP) and Evgeni Malkin (21 points in 17 GP) at forward, both of whom have been excellent early in the year, as has Erik Karlsson on the back end. The main question facing the Penguins, aside from dealing with injuries, is whether a team this old can maintain this level of play over a full 82-game schedule.

In Malkin’s case, it’s less apparent because he started last season strong as well, especially in October, when he went on a tear with a 3-11–14 scoring line in 12 games. His numbers then declined significantly as the season progressed. Crosby, however, usually improves as the season progresses, which suggests he might reach another level this year – an impressive feat considering he’s 38 years old.

Karlsson also appears to be a different player this season, and it will be interesting to see how his season unfolds. He seems more committed defensively and has been much more responsible with the puck this year, while demonstrating his elite skill and skating ability. His possession numbers back that up – only Parker Wotherspoon, his partner, has a higher shot-attempt share at even strength among Penguins defenders than Karlsson’s 50.7%. If he can keep this level of play throughout the year, alongside Malkin and Crosby, the Penguins have a strong chance of making the playoffs.

Then there is the wild card: Pittsburgh’s goaltending. Jarry remains an unpredictable performer. He’s been a two-time All-Star before, but he’s also shown inconsistency when the pressure ramps up. In any other year, you might see Pittsburgh’s goaltending as a weakness that could push them out of the playoffs, as has been the case in recent seasons. However, this year feels different for the Penguins, with Arturs Silovs, who has played very well early on, and rookie sensation Sergei Murashov, who just made his NHL debut earlier this week. These two young players, along with Jarry and even Blomqvist, form a very respectable rotation, even if they are largely unproven at the NHL level. Together, their .911 SV% ranks second in the league behind only the Blackhawks.

The cynic might examine Pittsburgh’s goaltending and argue that it is unproven, therefore unreliable, and perhaps (in the case of Jarry) a potential obstacle to their postseason chances. In most years, that might be true, but considering Jarry’s recent track record, it’s tough to see Pittsburgh giving him much leniency regarding his performance, and they probably wouldn’t hesitate to send him to the AHL if he doesn’t meet expectations. Pittsburgh did that several times last year, and since they’ve already sent high-priced defenseman Ryan Graves to the minors, they have no qualms about hurting the feelings of their veteran players.

Speaking of Graves, his signing on July 1, 2023, was supposed to mark the start of a lengthy stint on Pittsburgh’s defense, where he’d be in the Penguins’ top four. That hasn’t come to pass, and Graves was sent to the AHL to begin the season. Graves accepted the demotion professionally and went down to Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, where he dominated the AHL, recording a goal and six assists in 10 games along with a +9 rating. However, the reality remains that his play in Pittsburgh has been poor for two seasons, and if he can’t put together a solid stretch of performance at the NHL level, he’ll find himself back in the AHL.

Graves’ inability to remain an NHL player has created uncertainty on the left side of the Penguins’ defense. Up to this point in the season, Ryan Shea, Wotherspoon, Caleb Jones, and, to a lesser extent, Graves have held the fort and been steady enough to support a surging Karlsson and a struggling Letang. Shea, Wotherspoon, Jones, and Graves all deserve credit for their efforts, as they are all asked to play above their typical roles and are doing a decent job, especially considering what they are paid (outside of Graves, who is making $4.5M this year).

Shea and Wotherspoon, in particular, have been a surprise, as neither man was expected to be more than a fifth or sixth defenseman. There is a fair argument that they are both currently top-four defenders on the Penguins. Shea is a real surprise, and granted, his success thus far is somewhat predicated on luck with a 103.7 PDO. But he’s already set a career high in points in just 17 games and hasn’t been a liability in the top four.

The same can be said for Wotherspoon with a 103.6 PDO, but his play has been less about luck and more about playing a responsible, sound defensive game. There is nothing flashy about Wotherspoon, and he isn’t going to put up much offense, but he does have a bit of a track record of success from last year in Boston, although that was playing 18 minutes a night in a third-pairing role. In Pittsburgh, Wotherspoon has been a terrific top-pairing partner for Karlsson and has replicated what Marc Methot used to offer Karlsson a decade ago in Ottawa, without all the physicality. Wotherspoon has been able to support Karlsson’s play in a way that has allowed the three-time Norris Trophy winner to play his game without the fear of the puck always ending up in the back of the Penguins’ net. Wotherspoon has been one of several pleasant surprises for the Penguins this season, and perhaps the most important given the lack of depth on the left side of their defense.

Many pundits believed the Penguins were a few years away from competing and saw some of their free agency signings this year as patchwork moves to fill out the lineup, but they have proved to be much more than that. Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas entered free agency knowing the team wouldn’t be big spenders; instead of spending a lot, Dubas chose short-term, low-risk bets on players who had either dealt with injuries (Anthony Mantha) or lacked opportunity (Brazeau and Wotherspoon). Whether by design or luck, Dubas has rebuilt the Penguins’ farm system and NHL roster, and it looks likely they will be in the playoff hunt as the season continues, barring a collapse or multiple injuries.