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Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

NFL futures bets: 2023 AFC North Division win totals

By Matt Wiesenfeld | Last updated 5/15/23

The biggest off-season storyline in the AFC North was what was going to happen with Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson. In the end, he is back leading the Ravens, who have gotten him some new toys to win with. In Cincinnati, there are definitely no QB issues and the Bengals are the leading candidate to win the division and more.

Pittsburgh and Cleveland are wild cards. The Steelers seem to have had a very strong offseason but I think it is fair to say that there are questions about their second-year QB Kenny Pickett. While in Cleveland, their QB Deshaun Watson has to start proving he was worth the investment.

Let's have a look at AFC North win totals and see what they tell us about the season to come.

AFC North win totals

Baltimore Ravens - 9.5
Over -150 / Under +120

I know Lamar Jackson is not the best QB in the league but he is just as meaningful to Baltimore as any QB is to any team. When he is not on the field the Ravens fall apart, even though he has his limitations.

If Jackson had found another team it probably would have dropped the Ravens to last place in the AFC North. Now they are right there with everyone, except Cincinnati. The over is heavily juiced and that seems to be smart given how much regular-season success this team has had with Jackson directing things. This team always has a high regular-season ceiling but I don't see how you can bet that over at that price.

2023 Baltimore Ravens schedule analysis

Baltimore has a very interesting early schedule. They have two of the easiest games on the board at home against Houston and Indianapolis and also have all of their road games against division opponents in the first five weeks of the season. Overall it seems manageable and if their offense really starts cooking, like it did in Lamar's MVP season maybe this team could surprise.

When I run my numbers on the Ravens I keep coming up with about eight wins though so there is value on the under for me, especially at that price. I would definitely not advise paying that high a premium on any team when your money is being held for so long, especially with no guarantees with Baltimore. I would take the under.

Cincinnati Bengals - 11.5
Over +100 / Under -120

If you think certainty at quarterback is a requirement for success then Cincinnati is the horse to back, again, in the AFC North. Joe Burrow has weapons and has shown quickly that he can turn that into results. With that 11.5 total, the Bengals are expected to be one of the best teams in the league. The Bengals won 12 games last season and that was even with the lost game against Buffalo late in the season. That level of success was encouraging as coming off a Super Bowl appearance there was reasonable doubt that the team might slide a little during the season. That was far from the case and they have a lot returning again this year.

2023 Cincinnati Bengals schedule analysis

Cincinnati begins and ends its season against the Browns. As a first-place team, they have a difficult go of it, including visits to San Francisco and Kansas City, plus a game hosting Buffalo. For the most part, their most difficult games are well spread out and that can be a greater factor than most realize. The nature of football is such that it can be really easy to get on a negative role, but Cincinnati should be able to avoid that.

I like this Bengals team a lot. That said, getting to the 12 wins they had last season is no easy feat against the schedule they have. I am leaning to the over with Cincinnati because I know they are going to score points and that is going to allow them to get wins no matter where they are playing. They might need that final home game against the Browns though with a trip to KC the week before that tilt may or may not have real meaning and could present a real letdown spot.

Cleveland Browns - 9.5
Over +130 / Under -150

The Browns won 11 games in 2020, but since then they have been on a downward trajectory. Last season was messy all the way around. There was the stuff with Baker Mayfield, Deshaun Watson, and more. They are hoping to rebound.

The pricing above is telling you that the market is not seeing much upside for the Browns. Things might have been quieter this offseason, but there are still big questions that need to be answered at coach and quarterback and if you don't have those squared away things can unravel quickly. The simple fact is that the window might have already closed for Cleveland, thanks to their ineptitude and Cincinnati's ascendance.

2023 Cleveland Browns schedule analysis

Just like Cincy above, the Browns start and finish with division games. This franchise really needs a good start to the season but there is a good chance they are 1-4 or 2-3. I also don't like that some of the games that should be more like gimmes are happening late in the season when bad teams from a year ago could be more improved than they were to start the season. A lot changes from September to December.

I will not recommend the play because of the price, but I am with the market here and like the under. I just don't see how this team is going to be better enough to show real results.

Pittsburgh Steelers - 8.5
Over -130 / Under +110

The Steelers are never bad and have avoided losing seasons ever since coach Mike Tomlin arrived. They could certainly do so again.

At these totals and prices, it looks like the market is leaning into them just getting to another winning season. It stands to reason that they can get better play from their second-year quarterback this season and a little better health luck on defense. Their formula is pretty simple but it also works. It makes sense that betting against the Steelers should be the better payoff.

2023 Pittsburgh Steelers schedule analysis

We will know in the first month is Pittsburgh is going to be an overperform or underperform team. They have two challenging home games and two roadies that should be gimmes in the first month. After that, the season has a nice flow but Pittsburgh does finish on the road last two weeks so we might have to get that ninth win before that.

I don't like the pricing on the over side but that is where I am going with the Steelers. They do not have a high ceiling but when I run that schedule against a team that does not beat itself often they get enough wins.

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