Magic Johnson breaks down three keys heading into NBA Finals

If we dig deeper into Johnson's three factors, the Celtics hold a decided edge over the Mavericks. Boston made 17.3 shots per game from the paint area during the first three rounds, as opposed to Dallas' 15.5 makes. 

The Celtics also outrebounded the Mavericks 43.7 to 43.1 and committed fewer turnovers — 11.5 to 12.9. Furthermore, Boston's paint production would have been higher if not for Kristaps Porzingis' injury.

Of course, there's no reason why the Mavs couldn't flip those numbers in the finals based on the matchups they encounter. For one, their big-man tandem of Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford could force Porzingis and Al Horford to guard them in pick-and-roll actions due to their ability to catch lobs. The Mavs connected on 45 alley-oop dunks in the first three rounds, the most by any team since 2001.

As for the turnovers, it's hard to foresee the Mavs committing fewer errors due to their guard-heavy play of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. However, Jayson Tatum did commit an unprecedented number of turnovers in the 2022 NBA Finals and could surrender that advantage to Dallas if he reverts to his old ways. 

Through another tweet, Johnson conceded that the Celtics were the rightful favorites but cautioned Joe Mazzulla's team against taking the Mavs lightly. He pointed to the 2004 NBA Finals as an example of the underdog prevailing as champion.

Game 1 of the 2024 NBA Finals tips off Thursday at 8:30 p.m. ET.