Breaking down the NASCAR playoff picture as regular season hits home stretch

Nine drivers have already won at least once in 2024, effectively solidifying their playoff spots barring the extremely unlikely event of there being more than 16 winners by the conclusion of the regular season. That leaves seven spots up for grabs, with 10 drivers holding a realistic chance of earning one of them via points, and here is where they all stand.

Safe: Martin Truex Jr. (+128)

Truex is the only winless driver in 2024 who you can pencil in as a virtual lock to make the playoffs. His 128-point cushion over 17th place is next to insurmountable, and he has done everything but win a race this season with several more tracks coming up on the schedule which should be prime opportunities for victories.

Truex is once again facing questions over the uncertainty of his future beyond this season, but should he decide to call it a career after 2024, he'll be doing so with a chance to race for a title.

Probably safe, but no guarantees: Ty Gibbs (+86), Ross Chastain (+73), Ryan Blaney (+64)

Three drivers qualify for the "probably safe" tier just behind Truex, the first being his second-year teammate Ty Gibbs, who has also flirted with victory several times this season. It would take an unlikely string of events for either Gibbs or Ross Chastain — both of whom have comfortable margins above the bubble — to drop out of the playoffs, currently sitting at +86 and +73 respectively.

Meanwhile, the third driver in this tier, Ryan Blaney, makes it due to the fact that his potential to win on a given week is much higher than most other bubble drivers. Blaney is the defending series champion but has been wildly unlucky with his results in 2024, which is sure to change at some point. It would be a shock if he doesn't qualify for the playoffs.

On the lookout: Alex Bowman (+65), Chris Buescher (+32), Bubba Wallace (+8)

These three drivers are currently in the playoffs, but that could all change with just one or two wrong turns of events. Bowman is actually (by a single point) ahead of Blaney in the standings, but much of his 2024 performance has been simply avoiding bad finishes while rarely contending for wins, and no one can hide from the luck regression monster forever. 

The other two drivers here — Buescher and Wallace are in positions where all it will take is one winner from outside the current playoff picture and they're clinging to their playoff lives. Buescher could have multiple wins already in 2024 with better luck, but unfortunately for him, near-wins don't do you any good.

Outside looking in: Kyle Busch (-8), Joey Logano (-16), Chase Briscoe (-27)

Three drivers currently outside the playoffs have realistic chances to earn their way back in on points, and two of them are multi-time former champions in Busch and Logano. It's been a struggle of a campaign for both of them, but we know the ability to win is there (Logano did win the non-points All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro Speedway) and they can't be counted out until it's all said and done.

Briscoe has the toughest road, and will probably need to win given how competitive the bubble is this season. However, if he can string some consistent finishes together while avoiding any other winners from behind him in points, he may have a shot.

Needs to win: everybody else

From 20th-place Michael McDowell (-93) on down, every remaining driver is in official must-win territory. There will be opportunities for surprise winners, most notably the 25th race of the season at Daytona, which is always a wild card. The street circuit at Chicago on July 7 could be another one to circle on the calendar if it's anywhere near as chaotic as last year, but as proven by Austin Cindric at Gateway a few weeks ago, you never know when someone might throw an unexpected wrench into the playoff race.