The Stanley Cup Final heads to Edmonton for Game 3 with the Florida Panthers holding a 2-0 series lead. The location swap paired with a few games worth of data helps chart our expectations to power a few prop looks in this one.
My read of this one is that Edmonton surely ups the intensity to 11 to avoid going down 0-3. We've seen throughout this postseason a team returning home down 0-2 playing faster and peppering the net to just get something going.
One such player I trust to continue operating with plenty of volume is defenseman Evan Bouchard. Bouchard has an outrageous 25 attempts in the first two games of this series, and that's led to six SOG and an assist.
He is ripping the puck constantly, both during even-strength play and on Edmonton's power-play chances, and I like that role to lead to both getting a few pucks on net, and getting in on a goal. By all means, he may just blast one in himself. Or, his shot gets tipped in. Or it's just an old-fashioned assist by moving the puck.
However it comes, Bouchard is my preference to be active in Game 3.
He has points in 16 of 20 games this postseason and has piled up 18 points in nine at home. He has 2+ shots in eight of nine at home and has averaged 3.0 SOG per game across his 20 games since the start of the playoffs.
Vladimir Tarasenko has been Florida's best even-strength player this series; perhaps his past experience winning a Stanley Cup with St. Louis is coming in handy.
That, and Florida's third line gets to mostly avoid skating against Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, which is allowing for more shooting lanes and offensive opportunity.
Through two games, Tarasenko tops the team in expected goals and high-danger scoring chances. The forward tallied an assist in Game 2, and while the Panthers may not be able to dictate pace as well on the road, I do still think they'll find goals.
I'll gladly back Tarasenko at this price.
More must-reads:
Get the latest news and rumors, customized to your favorite sports and teams. Emailed daily. Always free!