Euro 2024 best bets: What to look for in the group stage

Today, in advance of the tournament’s opening week, we’ll take a look at those opening three matchdays — otherwise known as the "group stage." Which teams will impress? Which teams will fail? Here’s what we’re keeping an eye on in the opening round of the European Championships:

Ukraine’s unprecedented strength. Ukraine's qualification for these Euros would be an incredible achievement in any context, but the fact that it happened amid a war on home soil is something else entirely. It's fantastic that Ukraine will be present and visible on a stage as global as this one, and we're thrilled to see them compete.

The majority of the narrative around Ukraine is focused on the political context, and while we understand why, we think the global press is missing something here: namely, just how talented Ukraine's soccer team actually is. It features Andriy Lunin, Real Madrid's super-sub goalkeeper, Oleksandr Zinchenko, Arsenal's irrepressible utility man, Mykhailo Mudryk, Chelsea's record-signing winger, and Artem Dovbyk, the winner of La Liga's Golden Boot award. This Ukraine team isn't just brave: it's a genuine dark horse contender.

In an easy group featuring Belgium (aging and beatable), Slovakia (tough to break down but not super skillful) and Romania (just happy to be there), we think Ukraine is a shoo-in for the knockout rounds. We're backing it to advance as the group winner at +400.

Georgia's feel-good narrative. The lowest-ranked team at these Euros belongs to the small Caucasus nation of Georgia. But it didn't qualify for these championships by accident: this Georgia team is led by Napoli frontman Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and MLS striker Saba Lobzhanidze. (Saba, incidentally, is what we like to jokingly refer to as a 'double Georgian': he's from the nation of Georgia and plays his club soccer in the state of Georgia with Atlanta United.) Many are backing it to exit this tournament early, but we think Georgia is more than capable of getting itself a strong enough third-place record to advance. We're backing it to move forward to the knockout rounds at +175.

Switzerland's unexpected decline. The Swiss are usually good for a few shocks at the Euros; they eliminated defending world champions France in the 2021 edition of this tournament. But this 2024 vintage is aging, tired and not on the same page as its controversial head coach. Star midfielder Xherdan Shaqiri is coming off a terrible start to his season with the Chicago Fire in MLS; captain Granit Xhaka has openly criticized his coach Murat Yakin's tactics in the press. All is not well, it seems, in the Swiss camp.

With Germany expected to win the group outright and Hungary favorites to advance in second place, that leaves Switzerland battling with Scotland for a potential advancement spot in third. With other groups featuring more balanced teams and more winnable games, we worry that even finishing third might not be enough for the Swiss to move forward this time around. We're backing them to make an unexpected group stage exit at +150.