10 predictions for second half of NASCAR Cup Series season

When the checkered flag falls Sunday at New Hampshire Motor Speedway for the USA Today 301, the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season will be halfway over.

That means that after four months of setting the stage, it's time to think about the big picture before deciding a champion at the Phoenix Raceway on Nov. 10.

Here are 10 predictions from Yardbarker NASCAR writers Ryan McCafferty and Samuel Stubbs for the rest of the season.

1. A surprise shakes up playoff race

On Aug. 11 at the Cook Out 400 in Richmond — the season's second race at the Richmond Raceway — the playoff field will see another plot twist, courtesy of Stewart-Haas Racing's Josh Berry.

Berry has proved himself to be a formidable foe on short tracks this season, with his seventh-place run at Iowa in which he led 32 laps serving as perhaps a career-best performance. He seems to getting better throughout his first full Cup Series season, and a win on the next short track would be a great exclamation point. — McCafferty

2. Joey Logano makes the playoffs, but Kyle Busch does not

Team Penske has picked up the pace recently, with Ryan Blaney winning at Iowa on Sunday and Austin Cindric winning at Gateway two weeks before that. That leaves only Logano without a points-paying checkered flag in 2024 for the team, but he has strung together good results and should earn a playoff spot on points even if he doesn't win a race.

Busch, however, won't be as fortunate. His No. 8 team has trended downward throughout the season. Even when he has speed, the execution from his team has been lacking. Plus, there's uncertainty over whether Busch will remain with Richard Childress Racing next season. — McCafferty

3. Martin Truex Jr. ends storied career with at least one more win

Truex's career has been one of a storybook hero, fighting through adversity at every turn, including his longtime girlfriend Sherry Pollex's death from cancer. Plus, he lost his ride at Michael Waltrip Racing following the fallout from a race manipulation scandal that set the stage for him to lead underdog Furniture Row Racing to the 2017 Cup Series title.

It wouldn't seem right for Truex, who will step away from full-time competition after the 2024 season, to go out without at least one more feel-good moment — and he'll get it. Sitting fifth in points with 447 laps led, he has run too well to not find victory lane at some point. — McCafferty

4. Hendrick Motorsports will make up at least half of the Championship Four

Hendrick drivers William Byron and Kyle Larson lead the series in wins with three apiece, and Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman are putting together ridiculously consistent seasons. 

While it's not out of the question that three or even all four Championship Four slots are filled by Hendrick Motorsports, we'll play it safe and say two HMS stars — most likely Byron or Larson by virtue of playoff points — will take a stab at winning Hendrick's 15th Cup Series title. — Stubbs

5. For the second straight season, Byron will lead the Cup Series in wins

Byron won six races a year ago and is halfway to doing so this season. His quiet, David Pearson-esque style of driving keeps him out of trouble and in contention nearly every week. Expect to see the No. 24 car in victory lane several more times. — Stubbs

6. Despite a breakout season in 2023, Bubba Wallace will miss playoffs

Give credit to Wallace, who has stayed just above the Cup Series playoff cutline despite horrendous luck. Unfortunately for him, two-time champions Logano and Busch are his biggest competition for the final playoff spot, and with middling strategy calls and cars that never seem to get better as races go on, Wallace is stuck in a bad spot. 

He holds a six-point advantage, but with the series heading to New Hampshire and Chicago in the coming weeks, expect Wallace to fall out of the top 16. The driver of the No. 23 car is certainly playoff-caliber, but the circumstances he's in this season are not. — Stubbs

7. Chris Buescher will finally break through for a win

After winning three races in 2023, Buescher had high expectations this season. He certainly hasn't had a bad first half, sitting 27 points above the playoff cutline in 15th, but close losses at Kansas and Darlington have left the Texan wondering what could've been. 

However, Buescher proved last season that he's capable of winning at a variety of tracks, and he'll get that long-awaited 2024 victory before the playoffs begin Sept. 8. — Stubbs

8. Elliott will end the season with the best average finish in the Cup Series

This prediction isn't bold because Elliott's 9.1 average finish leads all drivers. The No. 9 team must be more aggressive in the playoffs, but Elliott's Lee Petty-esque season has vaulted him to the lead in the regular-season standings. 

It would be nice to see the No. 9 car in victory lane more consistently, but that should happen soon. — Stubbs

9. Larson wins regular-season title despite missing Coca-Cola 600

Larson is the best driver in the sport — he's so good, in fact, that despite missing the Coca-Cola 600 and having five finishes of 21st or worse, he's only eight points back of leader Elliott. Some will harp on his lack of consistency in his results, but with stage points, you don't need to finish in the top 10 every week to earn a lot of points, which is good. 

Elliott's luck has been unsustainably good this season (no finish worse than 19th), so he's bound to face trouble on the track at some point. That's when Larson will distance himself in the points, just as he has in most other metrics this season. — McCafferty

10. Ryan Blaney becomes first back-to-back champion of playoff era

It's hard to win back-to-back championships in any sport, but especially in one with a playoff system as random as NASCAR's. That's why nobody has done it since the introduction of the current format in 2014. However, as long as the season finale is at the same track every year, the opportunity will always be there for someone to have a bit of a built-in advantage, and Blaney has that at Phoenix.

Blaney has been rounding into title-caliber form again recently. If he can keep his momentum going and make it to the championship round again, he should be favored to repeat. — McCafferty