Summer of Soccer best bets: Euros and Copa march toward their finals

Spain beat France this afternoon to seal its place in the Euro final; Yamal's first-half wonder strike was a big part of why. In a tournament woefully short of teenagers Yamal is proving that the kids are decidedly all right. It's been a privilege to watch him and his Spain colleagues this summer. We're so lucky we get to see them turn on the style for one last dance.

But who will Spain's dance partner be? Will it be England, somehow in the semifinals despite its fans and press lambasting it like it went home when Poland did? Or will it be the Netherlands, a team that struggled in the group stage but sparked to life in the knockout rounds with two wild, heart-on-sleeve performances against Romania and Turkey?

Halfway across the world, Copa fans are asking similar questions. We're putting this out before Argentina and Canada contest their semifinal, but both sets of fans will be waiting with bated breath to see who they'll face from the opposite fixture: Uruguay or Colombia. Uruguay —notoriously tough, hard-tackling, bleeding heart and often just bleeding, period — set a CONMEBOL record when its quarterfinal against Brazil notched 41 fouls in 90 minutes. Colombia — notoriously feisty, quick on the counter and full of verve — could very well come together with Uruguay to break 42.

Here's our breakdown of the two fascinating fixtures:

England vs. Netherlands, 3 p.m. ET. Cast your mind back to the third and final game of the group stage: both of these teams were humiliated by their opponents and dragged mercilessly for it. England drew 0-0 with Slovenia and was accused of playing the worst game of soccer in history (it didn't, that was Ukraine vs. Switzerland in the 2006 World Cup, but if you've stuck around this page long enough, you already know that.) The Netherlands lost 3-2 to Austria in a wild boxing match of a game that caused many of its fans to turn on it altogether. They came back, as they always do, but man, things were rough for these two teams just a few short weeks ago.

But England and the Netherlands aren't merely united in their group stage misery. They're incredibly similar in other ways, too. They both feature successful but reviled coaches who are thought to be 'behind the times' even when they're winning. They both have world-famous strikers who have struggled to get their legs under them in this tournament. They both seem flabbergasted that they've made it this far, and they both seem a little confused about whether they want to go to the final at all. After that Spain performance today, can you really blame them?

Uruguay vs. Colombia, 8 p.m. ET. This is the gritty, defensive, physical, shouty match of our Copa America dreams. Both Uruguay and Colombia have long, proud histories in South American soccer, and both have strong identities they couldn't shake if they tried. They're both competent attacking teams — Uruguay has scored nine in the tournament and Colombia has scored a whopping 11 — but they're better known for their brutally efficient defenses. Put it this way: Nahitan Nandez's red card against Brazil in the quarterfinals was far from an isolated incident for Uruguay, and Colombia managed to get a red card earlier this year in a game it was already winning by three goals. These two give absolutely no quarter whatsoever, and their clash should be a hoot. A glorious, violent hoot.

Where are the best bets in all this? We think they're here:

Hesitancy between the Three Lions and the Oranje. In the modern era, these two teams have a tendency to stretch tournament games out and win by small margins in long, long evenings. With two conservative coaches at the help and a lot of tired legs on the field, we think England and the Netherlands are likely to need more than just 90 minutes to settle this one. We're backing a regular-time draw at +180 and penalty kicks at +350.

Cody Gakpo's industry.  No one has done more for the Dutch than Liverpool forward Cody Gakpo . He's in the race for the Golden Boot (Spain's Dani Olmo is just ahead of him at the moment with one extra assist) and he looks hungry to win it. We're backing Gakpo to score or assist against England at +162 and hope Arne Slot, his future Liverpool coach, is watching closely. Gakpo is the real deal: he's proven it on the sport's biggest stage.

Uruguay's Copa heritage. We're always quick to talk about Uruguay's past — it's won the Copa 15 times — but this year we're talking about its present, too. This Uruguay side has conceded just one goal in the tournament despite facing teams like Brazil and the United States along the way. It's got everything: defensive solidity, attacking prowess, a mastermind coach, lovable players, and more. We're keeping it simple and backing a Uruguay win here at +187, but fans of Colombia's gameplay might want to opt for a Uruguay win with at least one Colombia goal at +600 instead.