10 predictions for NASCAR's run to the checkered flag

With the NASCAR Cup Series on break for the Olympics, the drivers and teams have two weeks to regroup before returning to action at Richmond (Va.) Raceway on Aug. 11. The final 14 races of the season will be chock-full of storylines, including the championship chase. 

Here are 10 predictions for NASCAR's run to the checkered flag: 

1. For the second straight year, Bubba Wallace will eke out a playoff bid

Wallace seemed to be in a must-win situation as recently as Chicago on July 7, but he has made up 38 points over the past two races and is within seven markers of the final playoff bid. His 2023 experience with postseason pressure could come in handy this year as he looks to sneak into the playoffs for the second consecutive season. 

2. Ford will get one driver into the Championship Four

Going into May, this prediction seemed laughable. Until Darlington on May 12, Ford was winless in the Cup Series, but with defending champion Ryan Blaney and the rest of Team Penske heating up, it seems likely that the 2023 champ will have a chance to defend his crown at Phoenix. 

Ford will also have Joey Logano, Austin Cindric and Brad Keselowski chasing the championship, and Chris Buescher is still in the playoff picture, just 17 points above the cut line. Blaney is the favorite to be Ford's representative in Phoenix, but don't count out veterans Logano and Keselowski, who know how to turn up the heat when needed. 

3. Martin Truex Jr. will go winless in final full-time season

Truex winning a race in 2024 seemed like a certainty in the spring and early summer, but blunders from the No. 19 team and a lack of speed have that storybook win playing hard to get. Truex is a threat to win anywhere, but to get one more victory, the No. 19 team must avoid replicating its 2023 postseason meltdown. 

4. Front Row Motorsports will win a race by season's end

With three superspeedway races — Daytona, Atlanta and Talladega — along with two road courses left on the schedule, Todd Gilliland and Michael McDowell seem poised to break through and earn Front Row a win. Both drivers need a victory to make the playoffs, but they also have other motivations.

McDowell is looking to earn one last win for the team that helped him launch his career before going to Spire Motorsports in 2025, while Gilliland wants to end his breakout season with a win and build more momentum for the future. The best chance at victory for each driver? Gilliland's is likely Atlanta, where he led 58 laps in February, while McDowell's is the road course in Watkins Glen, N.Y. 

5. Kyle Larson will win the regular-season title

Larson is the points leader with four regular-season races remaining, but his lead is only 10 points over Chase Elliott and 15 over Tyler Reddick. The 15 playoff points are more than enough incentive for Larson over the next four races and with how well he has performed collecting stage points, don't be surprised if the 2021 regular-season champ is also crowned in 2024. 

6. Ross Chastain will go winless, miss playoffs for first time with Trackhouse

In his first two seasons with Trackhouse, Chastain looked like a top-10 driver in the Cup Series as he won twice in both 2022 and 2023 and made the Championship Four in 2022. However, he's only seven points above the playoff cut line with four regular-season races to go, and with Wallace on a tear, things are trending in the wrong direction. 

7. Carson Hocevar squeaks by Josh Berry for Rookie of The Year

Berry (22nd in points) and Hocevar (24th) are only separated by five points with 14 races remaining in their rookie seasons. Berry may have the edge in overall experience and equipment, but Hocevar seems to have more upside and has proved to be capable of top-10 runs at more than one track type. The ROTY battle will likely come down to the season's final race at Phoenix, but we'll give Hocevar the slight edge. 

8. NASCAR will announce at least one international race for 2025

As fans eagerly wait for the 2025 schedule to be released, the biggest question surrounding it is whether or not NASCAR will go international. It has been speculated that the sport is looking at a race in Montreal and/or Mexico City.

9. Larson ends the year as series leader in wins

Larson's four wins lead all drivers through the first 22 races and the No. 5 team is bringing race-winning cars to the track weekly. The only question that remains for Larson's 2024 season is whether or not he can cap it with a championship. 

10. Larson flips script on Blaney, wins 2024 championship

Last year, Blaney got the best of Larson in the NASCAR Cup Series championship race. Both drivers look like Championship Four material so far, and if they make it to Phoenix, it should be Larson's turn to outduel Blaney and claim his second championship in four years.