Summer of Soccer best bets: USWNT gears up for round two with Germany

That isn't to say everything is smiles and rainbows for the USWNT under Hayes, though. We can't have been the only viewers screaming at the television during the Japan game, for instance, wondering when — if ever — Hayes was going to get around to making an extra-time substitution.

And it's a bit concerning that the USWNT needed a moment of creative magic to undo Japan in the end. Hayes isn't traditionally a coach of whiz-bang special effects and rugged individualism: she likes consistency and cold hard facts. The win against Japan was great, but it involved neither of those two things, and that's enough for many to wonder if the whole thing was a fluke instead of a Hayes tactical masterclass.

Thankfully, that narrative should change in the semifinals, because Hayes and the USWNT are facing a team they've already played (and beat) at these Olympics: Germany. A late-stage knockout game against a familiar foe is exactly the time for Hayes's trademark consistency and cold hard facts. The USWNT has seen this Germany film before. It ends with a 4-1 victory.

But Hayes, lover of truth that she is, isn't ready to accept that a second win over Germany is a done deal. "Our shot conversion was high in the first game," she told The Athletic, and she's right — the team scored far more of its chances than it normally does. "This is a tight matchup, but one we'll prepare for."

Germany has a minutes advantage over the USWNT: it didn't have to play 30 minutes of extra time in its quarterfinal, so it's been able to rest a little bit more. For a team known for its physicality and direct play, those 30 saved minutes could be crucial. Can it flip the script on the same old movie? Or will the USWNT ensure the sequel looks identical to the original?

We'll find out tomorrow. In the meantime, these are the bets we're eyeing:

A USWNT win, but not without struggle. Germany is a stellar side and one that's caused problems for the USWNT in the past. Hayes is correct that her team was lucky in Game One. But even with all that luck, Germany still managed to find a way through and sneak a consolation goal. The USWNT should win this, but we wouldn't be at all surprised to see Germany score a few and rattle it. We're backing a USWNT win with at least one Germany goal at +375.

Smith's turn to shine ... The last few games have been all about Trinity Rodman, but we think young Sophia Smith is going to decide this semifinal. She scored a brace against Germany when these teams met a week ago and seemed comfortable breaking through its defense. We're backing her as an anytime goalscorer at +210.

... and Rodman's turn to assist, literally. Smith's opening goal against Germany came from a beautifully weighted Trinity Rodman pass. The two forwards have brilliant chemistry and really seemed to get into a groove against the Germans. With wide midfielders Buehl and Brand much better suited to attack than defense, Rodman should have plenty of space to bomb up the flanks and send balls in for Smith to convert. We're backing her to score or assist at +140.

The USWNT will take on Germany in Paris on Tuesday, Aug. 6 at 12 p.m. ET. See you there!