Olympic men's basketball picks, odds: Quarterfinal best bets for Tue. 8/6

Germany vs. Greece — 5 a.m. ET

Germany 1H 3-5

By Bryan Fonseca

Germany, to me, should medal — and so far, they've been the second best team in the Olympics.

In high stakes international play, they haven't lost a game since EuroBasket in 2022, where they won bronze. That run propelled them to a surprising 8-0 World Cup, where they won the world championship in 2023, and now, they're 3-0 and just smacked France in France.

Germany is just better, and I'd like them to cover this game against a top heavy Greek team who will be dying for Thomas Walkup, Nick Calathes and others to make shots next to Giannis Antetokounmpo. But, Greece has struggled with that consistency and while they were in the group of death, they're the most vulnerable team in the quarters outside of Brazil.

I like Germany, more than anything, to blitz them in the first half. This offense has pace, is relentless and has so many options from World Cup MVP Dennis Schroder to the Wagner brothers to an emerging Isaac Bonga and others. And Germany, to me, might be the favorites to see Team USA in the gold medal game.

Pick: Germany 1H 3-5 (Bet365)

Germany vs. Greece — 5 a.m. ET

Johannes Voigtmann Over 5.5 Rebounds (-120)

By Joe Dellera

Johannes Voigtmann will dominate on the boards in Germany’s quarterfinals matchup against Greece.

Voigtmann has been instrumental to Germany’s rotation and has played at least 20 minutes in all eight of Germany’s international games this year.

While he had just 4 rebounds last game, this is a perfect buy low opportunity against Greece’s interior size. In the prior seven games, Voigtmann recorded 6+ boards in each of them while averaging 8 rebounds per game.

I’ll back Voigtmann to exceed 5.5 rebounds.

Pick: Johannes Voigtmann Over 5.5 Rebounds (-120) (BetMGM)

Serbia vs. Australia — 8:30 a.m. ET

Nikola Jokic Rebounds Leader

By Bryan Fonseca

This opened at a juiced -155 and might be worse by the time this drops, but look, it's what should happen and we all know it.

Nikola Jokic averaged 11 rebounds in group play, including games of 13 and 15 against South Sudan and Puerto Rico, respectively. His only game in single digits — five — was against a Team USA squad who hardly missed from deep and didn't offer up those rebounding opportunities.

Australia is a good team, and Jock Landale is at 9.7 boards per contest, but unless they're going to shoot 56 percent from three like Team USA did — they're at 38.7 percent for the tournament — then Jokic should be able to get this.

Pick: Nikola Jokic Rebounds Leader (DraftKings)

France vs. Canada — 12 p.m. ET

France Total Team Under 78.5 Points

By Bryan Fonseca

France was the biggest disappointment in last year's World Cup, and they will be in these Olympics if they get whooped by Canada again.

Canada beat France 95-65 and contributed to the French National Team — second shortest odds to win last year's World Cup — in effectively being the first team eliminated in their own group.

France hasn't had a clean offense since 2022 EuroBasket, where they won the silver. They lost four straight scrimmages before the Olympics and are only 2-1 because Brazil also struggles offensively and they just survived against Japan, who dragged them to overtime after a Rui Hachimura ejection.

France has gone over 78.5 in only that game vs. Japan (the roster is small). Canada has wing defense that'll pester them again, and this may be a slugfest if it's at all close.

Pick: France Total Team Under 78.5 Points (Bet365)

France vs. Canada — 12 p.m. ET

Victor Wembanyama Over 2.5 Turnovers (-130)

By Joe Dellera

Wemby has been the hub of the offense for France throughout this year of international competition.

While he has often been looked off by his teammates for whatever reason, that has not resulted in Wemby being selfish with his possessions. Throughout international play, he has repeatedly turned the ball over with an increased role as a offensive engine. He has exceeded 2.5 Turnovers in 6/8 games including 3 against Team Canada in just 19 minutes in the preliminary rounds. Canada has plenty of strong perimeter defenders that can disrupt him and jump some passing lanes as well.

In a game where he should see closer to 30 minutes, I’ll bet on Wemby to exceed 2.5 turnovers.

Pick: Victor Wembanyama Over 2.5 Turnovers (-130) (Bet365)

Brazil vs. United States — 3:30 p.m. ET

Steph Curry Over 2.5 Threes (-105)

By Joe Dellera

Stephen Curry will light it up from beyond the arc against Brazil in the Olympic Quarterfinals.

Curry has continued to get volume from 3 point range despite struggling with his efficiency. But this is a spot to back him.

Brazil has been pesky; however, they have continually been torched from 3 point range. Their opponents have shot more 3s than 2s throughout the tournament with a whopping 51.5% of their shots coming from beyond the arc.

Brazil will be chasing Curry around the perimeter and trying to navigate screens with Huertas and Yago Dos Santos and this will be a difficult task for them.

This is the game Curry explodes and exceeds 2.5 threes.

Pick: Steph Curry Over 2.5 Threes (-105) (Bet365)

Brazil vs. United States — 3:30 p.m. ET

LeBron James Over 12.5 RA (-128)

By Joe Dellera

LeBron has been the leader for Team USA and has been the engine of the offensive attack.

LeBron is destroying teams while playing about 22 minutes per game. He has averaged 14.3 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 7.3 assists per game during Group Play. He is looking to set up his teammates and innate offense for Team USA.

As a result, he has exceeded 12.5 RA in all three games.

Here, he gets a Brazilian team that I expect to struggle against the speed and athleticism that Team USA brings to the court. I expect LeBron to potentially see a slight uptick in minutes as well given this is the knockout round.

I’ll grab LeBron to exceed 12.5 RA.

Pick: LeBron James Over 12.5 RA (-128) (DraftKings)