Three to watch, one to avoid for NASCAR's return to Richmond

After two weeks off while NBC aired coverage of the Olympics, the NASCAR Cup Series is back Sunday for the Cook Out 400 at Richmond Raceway. Following the break, it's anyone's guess who might come out firing on all cylinders. 

Here are three drivers to watch — a favorite, a contender and a dark horse — and one to avoid as the season begins its stretch.

Favorite: Martin Truex Jr. (+500, per DraftKings as of Friday afternoon)

Truex is running out of chances to grab another victory or two before he hangs it up after the season, and this one might be his best-remaining shot. He has won three times at Richmond — it would be four had it not been for a late caution, poor pit stop and final restart controversy in the spring.

Truex has the second-best odds at +500, behind only teammate Christopher Bell (+400) and ahead of spring winner Denny Hamlin. 

Contender: Chris Buescher (+1800)

Did the oddsmakers forget who won this race last season? Did they forget Buescher is 17 points above the playoff cutline and among those with the most to prove in these next four races? 

It sure seems like it, and at +1800, that's insane value for Buescher. He should be considered one of the top contenders with a P3 and a win in the past two late-summer Richmond races.

Dark horse: Josh Berry (+2800)

Oddsmakers are sleeping on Berry, who is listed at +2800, although he races superbly on short tracks all season. He has slumped in his finishes the past four races (none better than 20th) but had speed in two (Nashville and Pocono). He also led 32 laps and finished seventh at Iowa — the last time the Cup Series was on a short track, 

Iowa is a track similar to Richmond, where Berry finished 11th in the spring. He's in absolute must-win territory if he's going to make the playoffs, and you better believe crew chief Rodney Childers and Co. have had this week circled on the calendar.

Avoid: William Byron (+1100)

Byron, who slumped for months, needed the two-week vacation more than any other driver. He hasn't led a lap since the Coca-Cola 600 on May 26 and has five finishes of 15th or worse in the past eight races.

Richmond could provide him a solid opportunity to gain back momentum, but with how he's been trending, those +1100 odds (tied for fifth with teammate Chase Elliott) seem far too generous. He's not worth the money this week.