Premier League Game of the Week: Man United and Liverpool are more similar than they appear

The world's most famous soccer rivalries are built upon differences. Celtic and Rangers play out the Old Firm derby on opposite ends of a political and religious spectrum; Internazionale and AC Milan, while born from the same club, famously split due to differing opinions on international player registration in 1900s Italy. (Go ahead and take a wild guess at which one was on the "pro" side of that issue.) Differences add heat and furor to rivalries. No derby ever hit the big time because its participating teams agreed with one another on how to run things.

Or did one manage it? Because as we prepare for our Premier League Game of the Week, we're faced with two teams that are more similar than they are different: Manchester United and Liverpool.

On the surface, Man United and Liverpool might as well be twins. They've both had periods of Premier League dominance (Liverpool in the eighties and Man United in the nineties and noughties.) Man United has 20 Premier League titles while Liverpool has 19, but Liverpool has the edge in the Champions League, winning six titles to United's three. They're both urban Northern clubs with merchant roots that stretch back into British shipping and trading. They're both red, famously, and are hell-bent on painting their respective cities in that color. They both went supernova two decades ago and became massive commercial enterprises around the globe. They both floundered under sub-par American ownership. They both found a way out from under that curse.

The beauty of the United-Liverpool rivalry is in that similarity. These are two teams and fanbases that know each other on a deep personal level and hate each other all the more for it. Forget political and religious differences: United and Liverpool don't need them to make their rivalry spark.

They do have one key difference powering their meeting this Sunday, though, and while it's temporary, it's still weighty. That difference is trajectory. United is stagnant, running on an underwater treadmill, cursed with another year of Erik ten Hag's leadership after it couldn't find anyone better on the market. Liverpool is flying, sprinting off into the horizon, off to a perfect start to the 2024/5 season under the guidance of new manager Arne Slot. This match between the two of them is that odd spot on the graph where two arcs meet, and it should be a fascinating test of each team's journey. Is United really that stuck, or can it come through when it counts and blow past its biggest rival? Is Liverpool really moving forward under Slot, or will it hit a slow spell and long for the greener pastures of the Klopp years?

We'll find out on Sunday as these two familiar foes face off in Manchester. Here are the bets we're eyeing in the meantime:

Result and scoring. The odds are in Liverpool's favor on this one, and for good reason: the Reds look like one of the most complete teams in the league. But United tends to stick up for itself at home and these United-Liverpool games rarely wind up being one-goal affairs. With all that in mind, we're backing a Liverpool win with at least one United goal at +200.

Shots on target. Mohamed Salah and Luis Diaz get most of the credit, but the third member of Liverpool's attacking trio—diminutive Portuguese winger Diogo Jota—is quietly having quite the rebirth under Slot. He's been a menace in both of his Premier League appearances thus far and has knocked out a whopping seven shots in two games. With United's defense looking porous, we're betting on Jota to fire off at least two shots on target at +275.
Goalscorers and more. But now that we've given Jota his flowers, let's flip back to Salah. He's scored twice already in this Premier League season and looks happy and healthy for the first time in ages. We could bet on a Mo Salah goal at +125, but we really like the look of a layered option instead: a Liverpool win, at least one Salah goal and at least one Salah assist at +900. We backed a similar layered bet last weekend when Liverpool took on Brentford and it came through for us in a big way.

United and Liverpool will face off at Old Trafford on Sunday, Sept. 1 at 11 a.m. ET.