Week 1 AFC predictions: Why Jets and rookie QB, WR will shine

Let's get this season started.

In Week 1 in the AFC, expect big games from quarterbacks Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals, rookie Bo Nix of the Denver Broncos and Trevor Lawrence of the Jacksonville Jaguars and a new running back in Baltimore.

Before Thursday's night Baltimore Ravens-Kansas City Chiefs opener, Yardbarker NFL writers offer a Week 1 prediction for every team in the AFC.

AFC East

BUFFALO BILLS | WR Keon Coleman makes a bigger impact than expected | The second-round pick disappointed in the preseason, catching two passes for 20 yards in two games, but he's well-positioned to enjoy a productive NFL debut against an underwhelming Cardinals secondary. Arizona gave up 32 receiving touchdowns last season, the third most in the NFL, so don't be surprised if the big-bodied wideout finds the end zone.

MIAMI DOLPHINS | RB De’Von Achane finishes as team’s third-leading receiver behind WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle | With just five wideouts on its active roster, Miami will lean on Achane (997 yards from scrimmage, 11 total TDs last season) to take on more responsibility in the receiving game. Achane is an explosive, big-play threat who should thrive against a Jaguars defense that allowed the most receptions (109) and third-most receiving yards (771) to running backs in 2023. 

NEW YORK JETS | Jets earn statement win with defense | Although 49ers LT Trent Williams and WR Brandon Aiyuk are suiting up, their prolonged absences this offseason could lead to San Francisco's offense struggling, which New York's formidable defense should be able to capitalize on. Holding the 49ers to 20 points or less is possible and should be enough for the Jets to win, considering QB Aaron Rodgers is 35-2 since 2016 when his defense has done so, as pointed out by ESPN's Mike Greenberg. 

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS | Keeps things close with Cincinnati | Although the Patriots arguably have the worst roster in the NFL, don't expect them to get blown out by a potentially Ja'Marr Chase-less Bengals team. Regardless of whether Chase plays, the Cincinnati offense could struggle to find its rhythm in QB Joe Burrow's first game back from last season's wrist injury, which sets up a possible low-scoring affair. — Colum Dell

AFC West 

DENVER BRONCOS | Rookie quarterback Bo Nix throws two touchdown passes | Nix — who threw for two touchdowns in two preseason games — should exploit Seattle’s shaky secondary. Last season, the Seahawks ranked 22nd in the league in passing yards (233 YPG) and 23rd in passer rating (92.1) allowed.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS | Defense finishes with two or more sacks |This offseason, the Ravens lost starting right tackle Morgan Moses (Jets) and starting guards Kevin Zeitler (Lions) and John Simpson (Jets). On Thursday, Baltimore general manager Eric DeCosta admitted the team's young O-line might have a few “hiccups,” so don’t be surprised if it struggles against Kansas City, which finished second in the league in sacks (57) last season.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS | WR Davante Adams logs 100-plus receiving yards | The wideout recently told FanDuel’s Kay Adams that the Chargers’ social media team got under his skin when it posted a picture of him next to mock garbage-flavored Pop-Tarts during the NFL’s schedule release. The jab may motivate the six-time Pro Bowler, who has 34 receptions for 494 yards and four touchdown catches in his past four games against L.A. 

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS | Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert throws for less than 250 yards | In 13 games last season, Herbert averaged a career-low 241.1 passing yards per game. He may not get in the groove against the Raiders defense, which ranked 12th in the league in passing yards allowed (212.4) last season. — Clark Dalton

AFC North

BALTIMORE RAVENS | Derrick Henry rushes for 100+ yards in debut | The only way to beat Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs is by keeping him off the field as much as possible, and the best way to do that is by running early and often. The Ravens made sure to keep the 30-year-old Henry fresh by not playing him in the preseason, and it will pay off during the regular-season opener on Thursday night.

CINCINNATI BENGALS | Joe Burrow throws for 350+ yards in return | Burrow threw for nearly 350 yards in his last two full games of the 2023 season before suffering a season-ending wrist injury in Week 11. Against the New England Patriots, the former No. 1 overall pick will pick up right where he left off as he looks to "give people something to talk about” and remind everyone how good he is.

CLEVELAND BROWNS | Jerry Jeudy has 100-plus receiving yards | With running back Nick Chubb still on injured reserve as he continues to recover from his 2023 season-ending knee injury, the Browns must try to beat the Dallas Cowboys through the air. Cleveland’s No. 1 wide receiver, Amari Cooper, will probably see a lot of Pro Bowl cornerback Trevon Diggs, but Jeudy has a chance to be a mismatch with cornerback Daron Bland out six to eight weeks with a foot injury.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS | T.J. Watt has three sacks to start revenge tour | Watt was snubbed of his second NFL Defensive Player of the Year award last season after leading the league with 19 sacks. The Steelers offense figures to get off to a rocky start given its preseason struggles, so Watt will have many opportunities to get after 36-year-old Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins, who is coming off a torn Achilles. — Aaron Becker

AFC South 

HOUSTON TEXANS | Nico Collins records eight-plus catches and more than 150 yards overall | The 25-year-old wideout had a breakout season in 2023 (80 receptions, 1,297 yards, eight touchdowns), doing most of his damage against the Indianapolis Colts. In two games against the division rival, Collins caught 16-of-18 targets for 341 yards and two touchdowns. 

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS | Jonathan Taylor rushes for 130-plus yards and a touchdown | The former All-Pro running back hasn't played a full season in two years and will be eager to start 2024 hot against one of his favorite opponents. Over six career games against the Houston Texans, Taylor has averaged 135 yards with seven total touchdowns. He went off in his only game against the defending AFC South champion last season, posting the second-highest rushing output of his career (188 yards) in Week 18.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS | Trevor Lawrence throws three touchdowns | The Jaguars have surrounded their fourth-year quarterback with perhaps the most talent of his career, adding pass-catchers Gabe Davis and first-round pick Brian Thomas Jr. to an offense that includes wideout Christian Kirk, tight end Evan Engram and running back Travis Etienne Jr. Healthy after being banged up late in the 2023 season and fresh off signing a five-year, $275 million contract extension, Lawrence will put those weapons to use against a Miami defense that ranked 25th in passing touchdowns allowed a season ago.

TENNESSEE TITANS | Jeffery Simmons sacks No. 1 pick Caleb Williams | During a down year in 2023, the standout defensive lineman had just 5.5 sacks, but Simmons is nearly guaranteed to get hands on the Chicago Bears rookie quarterback. The two-time Pro Bowler has a sack in each of the past three openers, notching four sacks and five QB hits overall. — Mike Santa Barbara