Is this a down year for Orioles catcher or has two-time All-Star reached his ceiling?

When catcher Adley Rutdchman was selected first overall by the Baltimore Orioles in the 2019 June Amateur Draft, some people thought he might be the best catching prospect since MLB went to the current draft format in 1987. 

At the time, Jim Callis wrote this about Rutschman on MLB.com:

"Adley Rutschman has everything scouts want in a catcher. He's a switch-hitter who's a monster at the plate, capable of hitting for plenty of average and power while drawing a ton of walks. Behind it, he has a strong arm, impressive receiving and blocking skills -- plus leadership ability off the charts."

After a wasted 2020 due to Covid-19 and a full season-plus in the minors, Rutschman was promoted to the majors in May 2022 and he immediately had an impact for the Orioles. He finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting as he slashed .254/.362/.445, with 13 home runs and an .806 OPS in 113 games. 

Last season, Rutschman improved slightly across the board, and expectations were high for him to take another step forward in his age-26 season. Unfortunately, that hasn't really happened. In fact, he slipped back below his rookie-season marks. Now in his third year, his slash is .259/.326/.406. He has 18 home runs and an OPS of .732 in 128 games. 

Is this just a down year for the young backstop, or is it a harbinger of things to come in the future?

His Line Drive Rate is in line with his career numbers (23.2 percent). His Flyball Rate is at a career-high (42.8 percent). This has led to a lower Batting Average on Balls in Play than he produced in his first two years. While his BABIP is .278 this year, it was .291 his rookie season and .303 last year. 

Normally, if this stat goes down, and all other factors stay the same, it means he's hit into some bad luck. In his case, however, his eight percent jump in his Fly Ball Rate is the culprit. He's already hit more fly balls in 2024 (177) than he did in all of 2023 (170).

He's also walking less than he ever has and he's striking out more than last year. These factors are true indicators of why he is struggling a bit. 

Rutschman has nearly 400 games and over 1,700 plate appearances in his young career. He's had time to establish what kind of player he is going to be. What we are seeing in 2024 might be it. He probably has a bit more ceiling left; he'll probably never be a .300 hitter or hit 30 home runs. He can be a solid batter and catcher for the Orioles for years to come, but expectations should be adjusted. 

He's not a bust by any stretch of the imagination, and if he can maintain or slightly improve on what he's on so far, he can continue to be an above-average catcher, and will probably be in several more All-Star games. He just might not make it to superstar status.