Miami's Tua Tagovailoa (left) and Buffalo's Josh Allen (right). Imagn Images

'TNF' betting: Which quarterback should you back on Thursday night?

By Chelena Goldman | Last updated Sep 11, 2024 12:43 PM ET

Football fans everywhere are in for a real treat on Thursday night when the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins kick off Week 2 with a division battle. And if you're looking to play along, a passing yards prop is a great place to start.

Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa are two of the best in the business and are generating MVP buzz just one week into the season. (More on that later.) But who are oddsmakers favoring to log the most mileage on "Thursday Night Football?"

Here's a look at the odds — and how you should consider wagering.

Will Josh Allen (+550) and Tua Tagovailoa (+1800) be in the MVP conversations at the end of the season? pic.twitter.com/oubUQutbpm
— ESPN BET (@ESPNBET) September 11, 2024

Over at DraftKings, Tagovailoa is the runaway favorite in virtually every category because of his hot start to the season. He is favored to pass for over 200 yards at a -750 odds while Allen is priced at -425, and favored at -140 to have two or more touchdown passes while Allen is listed at +100 odds.

When it comes to yardage, Allen is the favorite to hit the 245.5-yard over-under at -145 odds. Tagovailoa is evenly priced at -115 to hit either side of his over-under of 265.5 yards.

Does this automatically mean you should back Tagovailoa on Thursday? Not necessarily.

When it comes to this AFC East rivalry, Tagovailoa is 1-6 with a 77.4 passer rating with 1,454 yards in seven career regular-season starts against the Bills, via StatMuse. In contrast, Allen is 10-2 against the Dolphins and has a 110.1 passer rating with 3,363 yards, via StatMuse.

Tomorrow night will be the 8th time Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa have gone head to head.

Here are the previous 7 times.

Tua has Josh beat in only one category…#BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/uDT85nINX2
— Put Steve Tasker in the Hall of Fame (@HOFSteveTasker) September 11, 2024

It's clear that Tagovailoa is the heavy betting favorite because he is the reigning passing yards leader and already leads the NFL with 338 through one game. When it comes to noted history, however, you're better off backing Allen to continue having success against this offense-savvy division rival.

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