Post-mortem for four fake NBA contenders: What's next for Luka, LeBron?

Roughly a dozen NBA teams fancied themselves as contenders this past season. Four of them were sent packing in the first round of the playoffs. 

Let’s examine those four teams that are heading to Cancun instead of vying for the Larry O’Brien Trophy,  highlighting what went wrong and what lies ahead this offseason.

Milwaukee Bucks

What went wrong: Similar to the Lakers (more on them later), the Bucks have had a precipitous fall since their championship in 2021. Blame injuries, poor roster construction and failed desperation trades. 

An untimely injury to Khris Middleton derailed their championship defense in 2022. An untimely injury to Giannis Antetokounmpo during the first round upended a dominant regular season in 2023. A surprise trade for Damian Lillard, a midseason dismissal of coach Adrian Griffin and another injury to Antetokounmpo threw the 2024 season into flux.

And poor roster construction, declining veterans, a desperation trade that sent Middleton to Washington for Kyle Kuzma and two major injuries to Lillard (deep vein thrombosis and a torn Achilles) doomed this season.

What happens this summer: Unlike the Lakers, the Bucks did not find a winning lottery ticket in the form of Luka Doncic to re-set their trajectory this season. The cupboard is bare. None of the young players have star potential. Dame is almost certainly out for next season. Brook Lopez will be a free agent. Bobby Portis can opt out of his deal. Portland owns swaps on most of Milwaukee's first-round draft picks. This team is out of options unless it trades Giannis.

Outlook: Grim, very grim. The best move for Bucks and Giannis is to trade him to an asset-rich franchise such as the Thunder, Rockets or Spurs.

Los Angeles Lakers

What went wrong: They failed to add a legitimate big man after trading Anthony Davis to Dallas for Luka Doncic. Thus, during the playoffs, they were a team built around Davis’ skillset that had to morph into one built around Doncic’s skillset. Moreover, Luka wasn’t himself in the playoffs, averaging only seven rebounds after averaging 9.4 in his previous 50 playoff games. Also, without a rim-running center diving to the hoop most possessions, Doncic struggled to create for others, averaging a career playoff-worst 5.8 assists per game. Finally, LeBron James and Austin Reaves played below their playoff standards in multiple games in Los Angeles’ first-round exit against Minnesota.

What happens this summer: Lakers GM Rob Pelinka must get in his bag this offseason. No more taking half-measures like he has the past half-decade. If this team is not a legitimate title contender next season, he will have failed.

Here's your to-do list, Mr. GM: Sign Doncic to whatever extension he wants. Trade for Brooklyn's Nic Claxton or Portland's Deandre Ayton, or try to sign Indiana's Myles Turner or Atlanta's Clint Capela. Acquire another three-and-D wing, particularly one who can guard lead guards such as New Orleans' Bruce Brown or Minnesota's Nickeil Alexander-Walker. If Pelinka accomplishes this, he might even get LeBron to opt out of his player option and re-sign on a team-friendly deal.

Outlook: The future is once again bright in L.A. thanks to the Doncic trade, but this summer is the most important one since the team traded for Anthony Davis in 2019.

Los Angeles Clippers

What went wrong: They had to rely on James Harden in Game 7 against Denver. Harden was great all season, carrying the Clippers while Kawhi Leonard was out and ramping up for the stretch run. That said, he’s never been reliable in big playoff games, and that trend continued in a 120-101 loss to the Nuggets in which Harden went 2-for-8 from the field, scored only eight points and finished with a negative-29 plus-minus. From a big-picture standpoint, the Clippers had a good, veteran-heavy roster and a good head coach (Ty Lue) but perhaps lacked a youthful, on-ball creator who could have stepped up when Harden struggled.

What happens this summer: Without control of their first-round picks for the next four years, the Clippers are pretty much resigned to run it back for the next few seasons with the same core and make moves around the edges. That’s not the worst thing in the world — Leonard, Harden and Norman Powell should still be similar players next season, and Ivica Zubac just finished second in Most Improved Player of the Year voting and sixth in Defensive Player of the Year voting. Maybe they could make a run at a guard to shore up the rotation, perhaps Detroit's Dennis Schroder, Brooklyn's Cam Thomas or Cleveland's Ty Jerome.

Outlook: If Leonard is healthy next season, they’ll be a fringe contender; if he's injured again, it might be time to shop players and try to jump-start a rebuild.

Houston Rockets

What went wrong: Against Golden State, the offense fell apart. Jalen Green had one excellent game (38 points in Game 2) and six putrid games (9.2 PPG in other games). Alperen Sengun was inefficient and ineffective when Houston needed him the most (45 percent from the field). Fred VanVleet, Amen Thompson and others battled admirably on both ends of the court, but it’s nearly impossible to win a series in today’s NBA when you score 93 points or fewer in three of the seven games as the Rockets did in this series.

What happens this summer: Farewell, Jalen Green! It’s time to go big-game hunting! Armed with a number of desirable first-round picks (including Phoenix’s unprotected 2027, swap rights on Brooklyn’s 2027 first-round pick and swap rights on Dallas’ and Phoenix’s 2029 first-round picks), plus players like Green, Sengun, Reed Sheppard and others, the Rockets are equipped to make a winning bid on whatever star player becomes available. Antetokounmpo or Phoenix's Devin Booker and Kevin Durant come to mind. Whoever Houston ends up with, having that scorer alongside a budding superstar in Thompson, will give the Rockets a shot at competing for a title next June.

Outlook: There aren’t many teams with a brighter outlook than the Rockets. However, to get into the true contender status, they must make the right consolidation trade for a star this summer.