Five factors that will determine 2025 NBA Finals

The Thunder head into the 2025 NBA Finals as the third-biggest favorite in decades, but it would be unwise to underestimate the Pacers, who convincingly defeated a 64-win Cavaliers team and the best Knicks team of the century en route to the championship round.

Here are five factors that could influence which way the pendulum swings in what promises to be an exciting seven-game series.

Explosive offense versus lockdown defense

Historically, teams allow fewer points in the playoffs when the game slows down. Enter the 2024-25 Pacers, who, on their way to the Finals, became the first team in 25 years to score 5.0 more points per 100 possessions than their opponents allowed during the regular season. Their effective FG% of 57.6 is the second-best mark for a Finals team through the conference finals, per Synergy tracking. It's only fitting that their explosive offense will be put to the test by a historically elite Thunder defense, which held opponents to an astonishing 12.8 points fewer per 100 possessions than they scored in the regular season. If styles make fights, this matchup was made in basketball heaven.

It's a sprint, not a basketball game

Both strive to run opponents out of the gym, but in contrasting ways. The Thunder do so by forcing turnovers at an unprecedented rate with their battery of defensive aces. The Pacers turn offense into offense by pushing pace after conceding a basket, best highlighted by Tyrese Haliburton's league-best 9.2 pass-ahead passes per game. The result? OKC (23.8) and Indiana (18.5) lead in points off turnovers. But the beauty is that they don't allow opponents to replicate their formula. OKC allows the fewest transition possessions (13.6 percent) and the Pacers allow the fewest points per transition possession (0.96), per Synergy. This series could be won in the first six seconds of the shot clock.

If the games are close, it's advantage Pacers

The Pacers overcame four 17-point deficits, including three seven-point comebacks in the final minute, en route to the Finals — the first team to achieve multiple such wins in the same postseason. On the flipside, the Thunder became the first team to record four wins by 30+ points in a playoff run. One team likes to blow out opponents, the other prefers to tire them out with its cardiovascular prowess. OKC could be in trouble if the games go down to the wire. Indiana has the proven chops for surviving nail-biting contests, going 7-1 in clutch games decided by five or fewer points in the playoffs thus far. 

Can Hali survive the Dorture Chamber?

Ja Morant, Jamal Murray and Anthony Edwards are likely still reeling from the effects of being guarded by Luguentz Dort, who held the trio of stars to sub-30 percent shooting from deep in the opening three rounds. It's now Haliburton's turn to enter the Dorture Chamber, a tricky proposition for the Pacers guard, considering Dort usually picks up his matchup 94 feet. Such an inevitability could hamper Indiana's offense, which relies heavily on Hali's outlet and pass-ahead passes. Over the last two seasons, he averaged just 12 points against OKC, his fewest against any opponent, while attempting shots at a lower rate when guarded by Dort than against any other defender, per GeniusIQ.   

The three-point margin

OKC and Indiana don't rely heavily on the deep ball, ranking seventh and 11th, respectively, in 3PT attempts. Yet, the Pacers have shot at a league-best 40.1 percent, while the Thunder have managed a paltry 33.6 percent. Both guard the perimeter well, ranking fourth and fifth in opponent 3P%. The key difference, though, is the Thunder have packed the paint and made late closeouts — a formula that may backfire against the Pacers. OKC has the third-highest opponent 3PT rate (44 percent), and 32 percent of those shots have come from the corners. The Pacers have made an astonishing 46.9 percent of their corner threes. If Indiana catches fire from deep, OKC will be forced to adjust its defensive scheme on the fly.