Indiana Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton. Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

Could this insane Tyrese Haliburton stat determine Pacers fate?

By Zach Wadley | Last updated Jun 4, 2025 9:18 PM ET

How Tyrese Haliburton and the Indiana Pacers play during the NBA Finals could be determined within a matter of minutes each game.

If the Pacers star knocks down his first shot of the game, it's a good bet Haliburton and Indiana play better than if he misses it. FS1's Nick Wright and the "First Things First" crew, recently highlighted the insane statistical splits of Haliburton making his first shot versus when he misses it.

“If he makes his first shot, he has a big game and he’s feeling good. And if he doesn’t, he goes more into distributor mode and he doesn’t play that well.”@getnickwright breaks down these insane stats about Tyrese Haliburton: pic.twitter.com/IH2MzzUyCe
— First Things First (@FTFonFS1) May 30, 2025

Not only does Haliburton play better if he sees the first one go through, his team does too. Entering Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals, the Pacers had a win percentage of .711 when he makes it compared to a .600 percentage when he doesn't.

He missed his first attempt in Game 6, but the Pacers went on to win. Haliburton bucked the trend by scoring 21 points and hitting 40% of his threes in the win.

Wright noted that Haliburton seems to exude supreme confidence on the court, but perhaps it's a mental thing that holds him back when the first one doesn't go.

What does it mean for the Finals? It could be nothing but a crazy stat, but it's a dramatic enough split that perhaps it warrants an increased aggressiveness from the Thunder defense in the opening possessions.

For Haliburton, his scoring is needed by the Pacers, but he's carved up opposing defenses with near-perfect point guard play. His 5.03 assist/turnover ratio is other-worldly, and he's proven he can have a massive effect on a game without being the main scorer.

Still, a trend over the course of 89 games is worth noting. It's something to keep an eye on in the opening minutes. The Pacers fate just might depend on that first look from their star.

Zach Wadley

Zach Wadley's sportswriting career began at the age of 12 when he started covering Little League games for his local newspaper. Since then, he's worked in the sports information field where he merged his love of writing, social media, and broadcasting. He is a graduate of Anderson University (IN).

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