Orioles' failed season highlighted by crucial trade mistake

In 2023, the Baltimore Orioles emerged from the rut of mediocrity and posted two straight competitive seasons. Now, they're right back where they started from.

With a 27-40 record, the Orioles again find themselves in last place in the AL East. But it isn’t just the loss of a few key players, namely Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander, that sunk the team; their remaining stars are also underperforming their usual numbers. Gunnar Henderson’s slugging percentage is at its lowest point since his Rookie of the Year season and Adley Rutschman is hitting for career lows across his stat line. 

With Baltimore’s stars lagging their normal production, the team has suffered. However, things could have gone better if the O’s had stayed put on just one deal from last season.

At last year’s trade deadline, the Orioles sent their No. 7 prospect, 2B/OF Connor Norby, along with OF Kyle Stowers to the Marlins for All-Star southpaw Trevor Rogers. At the time, Rogers was throwing to an ERA above 4.00 and lacked a decent track record since his All-Star year in 2021.

Still, up until that point, both Norby and Stowers had shown little promise at the MLB level, though Norby didn’t get much of a chance. This season, Norby is slashing .253/.291/.380 with three home runs entering Friday, not quite what the Marlins wanted from him. Stowers, on the other hand, has exceeded expectations, hitting .272/.339/.465 with 10 home runs.

So, at minimum, the Marlins are 1-for-2 thus far. What about the O’s?

Since landing in Baltimore, Rogers has been a dud. He threw to a 7.11 ERA in four starts with the Orioles last season. In January, he suffered a knee injury that sidelined him for the start of the year, after which he was held in the minors. He was called up to make a spot-start for a double-header in May, pitching 6.1 clean innings. Despite the great start, Rogers was promptly sent back to the minors, where he owns a 5.51 ERA with a .307 opponent average.

Stowers, on his own, might not have been enough to push the Orioles very far, but his presence in the Orioles’ batting order could have made a sizable difference. In any case, the production the Marlins are getting from their duo of ex-Orioles is considerably more than what Baltimore is getting from Rogers. In addition, Rogers is under contract through 2026. Norby and Stowers still have a long way to go on their current contracts. Barring a resurgence from Rogers, we can only conclude that this trade was a resounding victory for the Marlins. At Most, the Orioles would have been better served if they had waited for a better package.