Absurd first career HR a promising sign for Royals top prospect

If Caglianone's first home run is a sign of things to come, it will significantly reduce concerns about his troubling chase rate, or the percentage of pitches outside of the strike zone that a player swings at.

MLB.com noted after Caglianone was called up on June 3 that the former Florida Gator "ran a 44 percent chase rate as a sophomore in Gainesville," and lowered it to 39 percent the following year. Both numbers are well above the 2025 MLB average (27.9 percent).

"Major Leaguers should be expected to pitch outside the zone and test the new Royal slugger's willingness to expand it against the best-quality pitching he's seen," MLB.com's Sam Dykstra wrote.

Challenge accepted.

Caglianone has had a quiet start to his MLB career, entering Thursday with a .196/.212/.235 slash line in 13 games. Per Baseball Savant, he has an above-average chase rate (32.9 percent).

While his penchant for swinging at pitches outside the strike zone can be troubling, Caglianone's first career home run showed that it can lead to more balls in play, resulting in more runs.

Despite his lackluster numbers out of the gate, Baseball Savant data suggests Caglianone could become an excellent power hitter. He ranks eighth among all batters in average bat speed (77.5 percent) and seventh in fast swing rate (76.2 percent), defined as the number of swings with a bat speed at least 75 mph.

In the top of the ninth, Caglianone showed off that power with a 439-foot blast off Rangers reliever Robert Garcia’s 85 mph slider, punctuating a 4-1 win to complete the three-game sweep. Caglianone’s second long ball left his bat with a 110.2 mph exit velocity, his sixth-hardest hit ball this season, per Baseball Savant.

He also has a 51.3 percent hard hit rate, on par with stars Manny Machado (51.5 percent), Cal Raleigh (50 percent) and Bryce Harper (50 percent), and an excellent .302 expected batting average, higher than likely NL MVP Shohei Ohtani (.300).

Caglianone's first career home run was a teaser of the kind of talent he possesses. Few players would dare swing at that pitch. Even fewer could hit it out of the park. His second home run was just the cherry on top.