Who will win the NL Central, MLB's most competitive division?

Midway through the 2025 MLB season, the NL Central has emerged as the most competitive in baseball. Five games separated the top four teams entering Saturday.

To put that in perspective, after Friday's games, the Houston Astros, Los Angeles Dodgers and Detroit Tigers each led their respective divisions by at least 6.5 games.

With the Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds having moved past the 81-game mark, let's take a look at the division contenders' cases to pull away with the NL Central in the season's second half.

1. Chicago Cubs (49-34)

Case for: Chicago has one of the majors' top offenses, as it showed in Saturday's 12-3 win over the Astros. Per Baseball Reference, the Cubs are No. 1 in non-pitcher wins above replacement (WAR). Pete Crow-Armstrong has been the NL's breakout star, and offseason trade acquisition Kyle Tucker has been as good as advertised, leading the team with a .910 OPS.

The Cubs also have MLB's best bullpen, entering Saturday first in bullpen earned run average (ERA) at 2.53.

Case against: Chicago has a top-heavy 40-man roster and must maintain its health to remain atop the division. The Cubs also have the worst starting rotation of the contending NL Central teams. Since May 1, Cubs starters have a 4.75 ERA, the fifth-highest in the majors. (h/t FanGraphs)

2. Milwaukee Brewers (47-36) 2 GB

Case for: The Brewers won their fourth game in a row and eighth in their last 10 on Saturday, defeating the Colorado Rockies, 5-0. Milwaukee is the division's hottest team, and its pitching staff is a key reason for the success.

Against the Rockies, starter Quinn Priester allowed one hit and struck out 11 as the Brewers pitched their eighth shutout of the season. 

Milwaukee is one of the league's best small-ball teams, ranking fourth in productive out rate (33.2 percent) and posting the second-lowest double-play rate (6.9 percent), only trailing the Cubs (6.6 percent). 

Case against: It's a good thing Brewers batters can manufacture runs, because they aren't overwhelming opponents with their power. Entering Saturday, Milwaukee was No. 25 in home runs (76). Per Baseball Savant, it ranked in the bottom one percent in team barrel rate (6.1 percent) and average exit velocity (88.2 mph).

3. St. Louis Cardinals (46-38) 3.5 GB

Case for: After falling a season-high five games below .500 on May 2, St. Louis is 31-19, the NL Central's best record. (h/t FanGraphs)

The Cards don't have a dominant starting pitching rotation, but it is among the league's most dependable. Five pitchers have at least 15 starts. Sonny Gray, Matthew Liberatore and Miles Mikolas have great command, rarely issuing walks, while Steven Matz gives the Cardinals a valuable sixth option. 

St. Louis is ninth in runs scored per game (4.66), but it truly shines in the field. The Cardinals have a .990 fielding percentage, top in the NL and second in MLB, trailing the Texas Rangers (.991).

Case against: If St. Louis claims the division, it likely must beat the Cubs and Brewers consistently, something it hasn't done in 2025. In their first 11 games against the NL Central's top two teams, the Cardinals are 5-6 and have been outscored 51-38.

4. Cincinnati Reds (43-40) 6 GB

Case for: Since June 1, the Reds are 14-9, their best calendar month this season. Cincinnati's starting pitching rotation is among the league's best, ranking No. 2 in WAR (4.7) behind the Philadelphia Phillies (8.8).

Case against: The Reds have gone 7-13 against their NL Central competition, being outscored 74-102. They rank in the bottom five in WAR at first, second and third base. Elly De La Cruz, the team's best infielder, is one of the majors' worst shortstops, committing a league-high 12 errors in 80 games.