T.J. Watt's massive contract is necessary risk for Steelers

After months of negotiating and posturing, the Pittsburgh Steelers and star Edge rusher T.J. Watt finally came to terms on Thursday on a new long-term contract extension. The three-year, $123 million extension (with $108 million guaranteed) makes Watt the highest-paid non-quarterback in NFL history (for now). 

It's not without its risks for the Steelers.

But it's also a risk they pretty much had to take. 

The risk is very simple: As great as Watt has been throughout his career, he is going to be 31 years old this season while this contract will take him into his mid-30s. There is a chance that Watt has already played the best football of his career, and could be playing out this contract during his declining years. 

That's not exactly an ideal situation for a team in a salary-capped league.

If he slows down, declines or struggles to stay healthy over the next few years it might end up being a regrettable decision. 

That's also a big if. 

There is also a chance -- and likely a very good chance -- that even if Watt has already played his best football he can still be a dominant, disruptive player for a few more years, which would only be good news for the Steelers. 

The win for the Steelers here is that it's only a three-year extension, and not a four-or five-year extension which have carried considerably more long-term risk. 

Watt is also one of the most impactful players in the NFL when it comes to the success or failure of his team. When he is in the lineup during his career the Steelers are 79-40-2 when he plays during the regular season. They are 1-10 when he does not. While a lot of that 1-10 record can be attributed to the team's quarterback play, not having Watt has also played a big role. 

He's not only an elite pass-rusher in terms of the number of sacks he compiles (already 108 in his career), but also for the way he plays against the run, in coverage and as a turnover creator. 

If they have any thoughts of competing for the playoffs, or even a Super Bowl, at any point in the next couple of years they need Watt to be a part of that. Trading him now for a second-round pick or some collection of picks isn't going to make them better now or in the future. 

Letting him play out the season and risking him leaving for nothing is also not a winning move.

There's another layer to this as well. 

For as expensive as the contract extension is, the Steelers still have an extremely manageable salary cap situation in the coming seasons. Before Watt's new deal was signed the Steelers were projected to have the fourth-most salary cap in the NFL next offseason at more than $87 million. Even with Watt's contract in there they will still be more than $45 million under the cap, while there is a very good chance they will be selecting a quarterback in the first-round of the 2026 NFL Draft, meaning the most important position on the field will still be costing them very little against the cap.  

Watt is their best player.

He is their most important and most impactful player.

Even after signing him to an historic contract they still have salary cap flexibility to work with.

They got him for a shorter contract than was maybe previously expected, and got it done before it turned into a potential holdout through training camp and into the regular season. 

It might carry some risk. It is a necessary risk they pretty much had to take.