Analyst warns Commanders about possibly paying WR Terry McLaurin

Barry Svrluga of The Washington Post, The Athletic's David Aldridge and tight end Zach Ertz are among those who have publicly campaigned for the Washington Commanders to pay unsettled wide receiver Terry McLaurin. 

In an article published on Friday, The Washington Post's Neil Greenberg explained why the Commanders may want to think twice about showing McLaurin the money before the season begins.

"He ranked fourth among all receivers in expected points added, per TruMedia, generating 61 total EPA — roughly the equivalent of two additional wins for his team," Greenberg wrote about McLaurin finishing the 2024 season with the league's second-most touchdown catches (13). "By my estimate, each win is worth about $13.8M on the open market, putting McLaurin’s 2024 value at $27.1M. The wide receiver market has blown way past that."

Specifically, Aldridge suggested the Commanders and McLaurin could agree to a deal that falls somewhere between the four-year extension worth up to $120M that Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown received last offseason and the four-year, $130M contract that New York Jets receiver Garrett Wilson agreed to this week. 

As Greenberg alluded to in his piece, St. Brown turns 26 years old in October, while Wilson will turn 25 on July 22. To compare, McLaurin will be 30 by the end of September. 

"Wideouts age 30 or older tend to decline," Greenberg added. "Especially for wide receivers who play primarily on the outside like McLaurin, reaching age 30 is rarely the beginning of anything. Historical aging curves show that production — measured in this case by fantasy football point output — tends to peak between ages 23 and 27, with sharp declines beginning around 28."

However, it somewhat ignores that Washington is a win-now team coming off a trip to the NFC Championship Game. It has a potential superstar at quarterback in reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels, who will be on an inexpensive contract for at least another two seasons. 

Add in that DraftKings Sportsbook continued to list the Commanders third among the betting favorites at +900 odds to represent the NFC in Super Bowl LX as of Friday, and one would think it's likely Washington will make McLaurin happy before the 2025 season begins on Sept. 5.

In "the salary cap isn't real" world that is the NFL, the Commanders can almost certainly afford to pay McLaurin and punt worries about their financial situation down the road for when Daniels will look to ink a lucrative multi-year extension.