What Aaron Judge update means for Yankees

Yankees superstar Aaron Judge underwent testing earlier Saturday due to what the Yankees termed an “elbow issue,” and manager Aaron Boone relayed the results of that testing to reporters this afternoon. As relayed by several reporters including Joel Sherman of the New York Post, Boone revealed that Judge is suffering from a flexor strain. He’ll need to be placed on the injured list and will be limited to DH-only duties for a time upon his return, but Boone added that there is no tear in Judge’s UCL and described the diagnosis as “good news.”

ESPN’s Jorge Castillo was among those to relay that Boone suggested it’s “possible” that Judge could be back in the lineup as a DH after a minimum 10-day stint on the shelf, at which point he could begin a throwing program with an eye toward returning to the outfield later on. Castillo adds that Boone noted he’s already spoken to incumbent DH Giancarlo Stanton about getting some outfield reps while Judge occupies the DH slot upon his return. Jon Heyman of the New York Post added that the ideal scenario for the Yankees is that Judge misses 10 days on the IL, then serves as the club’s DH for 10 more days before returning the outfield in just 20 days total. It’s an aggressive timeline that would put Judge back in right field on a regular basis in the middle of August.

Flexor strains are often a precursor to UCL damage but can typically be resolved with rest, with the exact amount of rest necessary dependent on the severity of the strain. With such an aggressive timeline being discussed at this point, it seems likely that Judge is dealing with a relatively minor strain. With that being said, the Yankees’ top priority is surely to avoid damage to Judge’s UCL that could require surgery. It would be a surprise if the club was willing to rush their generational talent back to the field before they were completely certain that he won’t cause further damage to his elbow by continuing to play.

Whether Judge will ultimately return to the roster after just a minimum stint and be back in the outfield shortly thereafter or he’ll require a longer absence, the fact that Judge shouldn’t require surgery is surely cause for relief among the Yankees faithful. Even so, any time missed by the reigning AL MVP will be a tough blow given his singular importance to the team’s lineup. Always a prolific hitter, Judge has unlocked another gear to his game since the start of the 2022 season when he crushed an AL-record 62 homers and won his first MVP award. He was limited to just 106 games by injury in 2023 but delivered another MVP performance last year that was more or less identical to his 2022 campaign. This year has been more of the same so far, as he’s slashed an unbelievable .342/.449/.711 while leading the majors in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, hits and total bases as well as both bWAR and fWAR.

Losing that caliber of hitter would hurt for any lineup, but it’s especially damaging for a Yankees position-player corps that has gotten up-and-down performances from other key hitters like Paul Goldschmidt, Cody Bellinger and Ben Rice. Bellinger, Trent Grisham and Jasson Dominguez should be able to handle things in the outfield while Judge is out of commission, but it’s undeniable that Dominguez’s league-average bat is a huge step down from the elite offense Judge has offered. While no one can reasonably expected to replace an MVP candidate, it’s possible that reinforcements from the minors (or even another club ahead of the trade deadline) could help to soften the blow over the coming days.

Top outfield prospect Spencer Jones has been ranking in his first taste of Triple-A action this year and might seem like a logical choice to replace Judge on the roster, but Jack Curry of the YES Network writes that Jones missed Friday night’s game for the RailRiders because of back spasms. That could leave fellow Triple-A outfielders Everson Pereira and Bryan De La Cruz as the most likely options to step up in Judge’s place, particularly given that both are already on the club’s 40-man roster. It wasn’t too long ago that Pereira was in the top-100 prospect conversation, and while injuries have sidelined him in recent years, he’s posted a strong .256/.353/.516 line in 300 Triple-A plate appearances this year. De La Cruz has less impressive numbers, but does boast a longer track record in the big leagues.

With Judge expected to return this season and potentially do so without even spending very long on the injured list, it’s unlikely that his injury will cause the Yankees to pull back from their plan of buying in the coming days as they look to catch the Blue Jays in the AL East. It’s not out of the question, however, that the club could have more interest in adding further to the offense in the wake of Saturday's news even after trading for third baseman Ryan McMahon. Speculatively speaking, a versatile hitter capable of helping out all over the diamond like Twins utility man Willi Castro or versatile Cardinals hitter Brendan Donovan (the latter of whom New York was recently connected to) could be very attractive as a short-term boost to the outfield mix while Judge recovers who could then shift to the infield mix long-term.