Former lottery pick should be cautionary tale for Warriors' Jonathan Kuminga

When Kuminga posted "I'll bet on myself all day," it was a not-so-veiled threat to the Warriors that he would take their one-year, $7.9M offer for next season, and its accompanying no-trade clause. The Warriors have reportedly offered Kuminga a two-year deal worth $21.7M next season, more than the $19.8M he'd start with elsewhere, but with a team option on the second year and no no-trade clause for 2025-26.

But Kuminga would be wise to take as much guaranteed money as he can get, at least for next season. The NBA's restricted free agency rules are severely tilted towards teams, not players, so Kuminga lacks leverage. That was also the case for former No. 6 overall pick Nerlens Noel.

In 2017, the Dallas Mavericks traded for Noel and offered him a four-year contract for $70M. Noel refused the deal and chose to take the $4.1M qualifying offer and become an unrestricted free agent in 2018. Noel fell out of the Mavericks rotation and suffered a thumb injury that kept him out for months, going on to sign a minimum contract in 2018.

Noel regretted the decision so much that he had an unsuccessful attempt to sue his agent, Rich Paul of Klutch Sports, for the lost wages. He went on to earn just over $30M for the remainder of his NBA career, which ended in 2023 — a big step down from $70M.

The Warriors are playing hardball because Kuminga's primary suitors, the Sacramento Kings and Phoenix Suns, can't sign Kuminga to an offer sheet outright. They need to put together a sign-and-trade deal, and so far, the Warriors don't like what they've been offered in return for their 22-year-old forward.

Ideally, Kuminga and his agents would convince the Kings to increase their offer to the Warriors, as they are so far offering second-year guard Devin Carter, big man Dario Saric and a conditional first-round pick. The deal might get done if the Kings substituted guard Keon Ellis and/or an unprotected first-round pick.

The Suns are offering Royce O'Neale, Nick Richards and four second-rounders, a non-starter thanks to O'Neale's long deal, but it's unclear if they have anything else to sweeten the deal.

But if he can't make his way to Sacramento, Kuminga should grit his teeth and take the sure money with Golden State, especially as they seem willing to move Kuminga after the season starts, and they can take a higher salary back in return. He may be frustrated with staying, even temporarily, but he has about 14 million reasons to do so.