Why Blue Jays’ contender status may ride on Shane Bieber

Three weeks after the Toronto Blue Jays acquired him from the  Cleveland Guardians at the MLB trade deadline, Shane Bieber made his long-awaited return to the mound on Friday.

A durable arm throughout the first six years of his professional career, Bieber hasn't pitched in the majors since undergoing Tommy John surgery in April 2024. Once the ace of Cleveland's rotation, Bieber will now be tasked with helping a title-hopeful Toronto squad to championship glory.

It's hard to predict whether the 30-year-old is capable of returning to the Cy Young-caliber pitcher he was from 2020 to 2022. But with how the Jays' rotation has performed this season, the franchise will have to hope he gets close to that level.

Toronto's rotation certainly isn't lacking in big names. With Bieber now in the fold, the Blue Jays are filled to the brim with accomplished pitchers. Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and Jose Berrios are all former All-Stars. Meanwhile, Max Scherzer is a three-time Cy Young winner and future Hall of Famer.

Outside of the 41-year-old Scherzer, though, Toronto's star-studded rotation hasn't lived up to expectations. Gausman has failed to replicate his first season with the Jays, when he posted a 3.16 ERA and led the league with 237 strikeouts. He hasn't been the ace the Jays need in 2025, currently possessing a 3.78 ERA as his strikeout numbers continue to drop. 

Bassitt, too, has been unable to reclaim his 2023 form, when he led the AL in wins and served as a reliable mid-rotation starter. He's been unable to keep his ERA under four and currently leads all pitchers in hits allowed.

Berrios has suffered the worst drop-off in 2025 after posting a respectable 3.60 ERA in 2024. While never a star, the Jays have to be disheartened by Berrios' 4.00 ERA after back-to-back solid campaigns.

With 2022 Cy Young candidate Alek Manoah still struggling to find his footing in the pitch-clock era, though, it appears this is the five starting arms Toronto will have for its stretch run. 

The Blue Jays have bounced back admirably after a disappointing 74-88 season in 2024. But Toronto's current 74-54 record is largely thanks to the team's top-tier offense. 

If Toronto manages to claim its first World Series title since 1993, it will be thanks to the pitching staff finally matching the power of its offense. Whether the rotation can rise to the occasion remains to be seen, but Bieber’s upcoming start against the Miami Marlins could offer an early hint.