Three Group of Six teams poised for upsets in Week 1

Early each college football season, a few Power Four teams never fail to stumble against weaker opponents before finishing the year more strongly.

In 2024, Texas Tech lost by 21 points at Washington State, and Vanderbilt was inexplicably upset by Georgia State, making them the latest victims of this trend.

Which notable squads will be the next to slip up at the beginning of the 2025 campaign?

Toledo at Kentucky

A popular pick seems to be Kentucky, which is only favored by 7.5 points against Toledo, per ESPN BET. This is for good reason as the Rockets aim to be the Group of Six’s bid to the College Football Playoff thanks to an easy schedule after the first two weeks. Meanwhile, the Wildcats are reeling following a 4-8 season a year ago.

Toledo ranks first in the Mid-American Conference when it comes to returning production, and the defense is primed for another strong outing under sixth-year defensive coordinator Vince Kehres.

Not to mention, the Rockets have no issues traveling to SEC country, as they manhandled Mississippi State in 2024.

To steal a win on Kroger Field, though, it will come down to the offense, which has been inconsistent at times. However, veteran quarterback Tucker Gleason will be at the helm behind a revamped offensive line that brought in four transfers during the offseason. 

Florida Atlantic at Maryland

The Terrapins haven’t seen much success in recent years, and things could get even worse as a new and improved Florida Atlantic squad rolls into town.

First-year head coach Zach Kittley has brought some talent to Boca Raton from his time as offensive coordinator at Western Kentucky. Maryland ranked No. 16 in the Big Ten for passing yards allowed per game in 2024, which sets up nicely for quarterback Caden Veltkamp and receiver Easton Messer, both of whom already share a strong connection from their time as Hilltoppers.

The Owls defense will have its hands full with four-star quarterback Malik Washington, who is expected to win the position battle at Maryland. Washington’s dual-threat ability mixes nicely with the Terrapins' RPO schemes, meaning the trip to College Park could end up feeling even longer for FAU if it is not careful. 

Boise State at South Florida

Although the Broncos aren’t a power-conference team yet, they are on track to crash the playoff party once again. Despite losing Heisman finalist Ashton Jeanty, they retained key pieces in quarterback Maddux Madsen and edge-rusher Jayden Virgin-Morgan.

However, Boise State can’t take South Florida lightly.

The Bulls sit first in terms of returning production in the American, and they will see the return of quarterback Byrum Brown, whose 2024 campaign was cut short due to a leg injury. Brown hopes to get USF’s inefficient offense back on track behind an experienced offensive line, while head coach Alex Golesh reloaded at running back with Charlotte’s Cartevious Norton and Oklahoma’s Sam Franklin joining the program.

However, if the Bulls want to prove the experts wrong, it will come down to their defense getting stops against a high-powered Boise State offense. The veteran linebacker group of Mac Harris, Rico Watson III and Chavez Brown aims to do just that.