Arch Manning's No. 1 pick odds plummet after loss to Ohio State

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning's odds to go No. 1 overall in the 2026 NFL Draft have taken a hit. 

Entering the season, DraftKings Sportsbook listed Manning (6-foot-4, 219 pounds) as the favorite to be the top pick in 2026. Now, he doesn't even have the second-best odds. 

As of Sunday, DraftKings gives the 21-year-old QB the fifth-best odds to go No. 1 (+700). LSU Tigers QB Garrett Nussmeier and Penn State Nittany Lions QB Drew Allar are the co-favorites to be the top pick (+350).  

On Saturday, Allar (6-foot-5, 235 pounds) went 22-of-26 passing for 217 yards and one touchdown in a 46-11 blowout against the Nevada Wolf Pack. Nussmeier (6-foot-1, 205 pounds), meanwhile, completed 28-of-38 passes for 230 yards and one TD in a 17-10 road win over the No. 4 Clemson Tigers.

Manning paled in comparison to his fellow passers. He completed 17-of-30 passes for 170 yards, one touchdown and one interception in Saturday's 14-7 loss to the No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes.

Analytics show his accuracy needs considerable improvement. Citing ESPN Research, ESPN's Heather Dinich reported Manning's off-target percentage (37%) was the worst by a Texas QB in a game over the past decade. 

To cut Manning slack, he faced the defending national champions and a stacked defense. The Buckeyes feature studs, such as safety Caleb Downs and linebacker Sonny Styles, who each had five tackles against Texas.

It's still fair to expect more from a highly touted prospect in Manning, the nephew of Super Bowl champions Peyton and Eli. 

"Arch Manning is the most heralded prospect in decades because of his family lineage and status as a quarterback phenom," wrote Bleacher Report's Brent Sobleski in a story published Sunday. "Even so, the football-watching world waited two years before Manning finally took over the Longhorns offense in his third. The wait wasn't worth it based on Saturday's performance when the spotlight shone brightly." 

Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian said outside expectations were out of control for Arch Manning postgame. Perhaps they affected the QB's psyche. 

Instead of worrying about his NFL future, Arch Manning should focus on helping Texas regain its footing in the College Football Playoff race. It could be a while before he's ready for the next level anyway.