Predicting the National League Manager of the Year finalists

Unlike last year, the 2025 National League Manager of the Year Award is nearly settled. While some last-minute winning spurts could disrupt the second- or third-place finalists from overthrowing the clear favorite, there’s been a clear favorite since June.

Pat Murphy, Milwaukee Brewers

Winning the NL Manager of the Year accolade in back-to-back seasons wouldn’t be shocking for Murphy, given his season accomplishments.

Murphy has commanded the Brewers with ease the entire season. According to ESPN, Milwaukee has never had a losing month, and they were the first MLB team to win 90 games. The Brewers have already outperformed their 2024 record and raised their run differential by +44, which is impressive considering they lost Willy Adames in the offseason and operated without Cy Young-caliber starter Brandon Woodruff for the first four months of the year. To top it all off, Murphy successfully oversaw the development of Caleb Durbin and Jacob Misiorowski, who have become fixtures in the Brewers' lineup and rotation.

Milwaukee has steamrolled the NL Central for the majority of the season, and it’s largely thanks to Murphy’s steady management. Winning 100 games would likely seal Murphy’s bid for the award, but all signs still point to Murphy being the frontrunner. 

Craig Counsell, Chicago Cubs

In his second year as manager, Counsell has put the Cubs back in the playoffs.

Counsell figured out a way to get from a roster that mostly stayed intact. Besides swapping Christopher Morel for Kyle Tucker at third base and exchanging Matthew Boyd for Kyle Hendricks in the rotation, the Cubs didn’t gain much star power. Yet, Counsell managed to gain 13.1 extra WAR from his lineup, per Baseball-Reference. And despite losing Justin Steele and Javier Assad for nearly the entire season due to injuries, the rotation has won 11 more games and has improved its run differential by +65 games, according to ESPN.

Counsell’s shaky lineup and bullpen management decisions have gotten him into some trouble, but the case for his case on the ballot will be strongly tied to how much of the gap he can close in the division.

Rob Thomson, Philadelphia Phillies

Thomson makes winning 90+ games in consecutive seasons look easy, when in reality it’s not trivial.

While he’s fortunate to manage one of the most complete MLB teams in the league, Thomson’s biggest accomplishment is his consistency. Even though the lineup — primarily Nick Castellanos, Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott — is -5.0 worse than last year, per Baseball-Reference, the Phillies improved their run differential by +9 this year. Their rotation has aged like fine wine, too, as Philly starters rank first in strikeouts, third in ERA, third in wins and fifth in WHIP among all 30 teams, as listed by MLB.

Thomson has managed the Phillies to a World Series, NLCS and NLDS in his three seasons as manager. Perhaps he can add Manager of the Year to his resume in November.