Yankees cast doubt on the reigning Rookie of the Year's role in the postseason

Since returning from injury on Aug. 3, New York Yankees starter Luis Gil has put together what, on the surface, appears to be a solid performance. The reigning Rookie if the Year owns a 3.29 ERA with 39 strikeouts in 52 innings this season. While this isn’t much larger than a sample size, it would appear Gil has earned himself a valued spot in the Yankees' playoff rotation behind Max Fried and Carlos Rodon. However, according to manager Aaron Boone and pitching coach Matt Blake, it does not.

In a recent article from The Athletic, Yankees insider Chris Kirschner reported that rookies Cam Schlittler and Will Warren are being discussed to take the third spot in the rotation. This decision not to hand Gil the third rotation spot doesn’t stem from his numbers, but rather his underlying metrics. 

“I do think that is something that, when you look at it, like, is this sustainable?” Blake said of Gil's seemingly exceptional results. “I think it’s probably not. The surface-level ERA is probably a little bit lucky.

“I don’t think he’s a five-ERA guy, but he has pitched to a lot of traffic. He does have an instinct to make big pitches when the stakes are higher. I think that plays into it a little bit. But is that a recipe you want to live on? I don’t think so.”

What is factoring into the Yankees' decision?

Among several factors behind this decision, Gil’s expected ERA of 4.77 stands out. This implies that Gil’s success this season is based off, as Blake called it, luck. His groundball, walk, strikeout, whiff, chase and average exit velocity rates are among the worst in the game since his return, a stark contrast from his Rookie of the Year performance. Gil has also experienced a dip in velocity. Kirschner notes that this is intentional, but dispels any rumor that this is due to his injury.

“I don’t think it’s anything physical,” Boone said of Gil’s inability to miss bats or prevent walks. “I think it’s command, just trying to find his way in the strike zone in a better way.”

The front-runner for the third rotation spot is Schlitter, who owns a 3.27 ERA with 75 strikeouts in 66 innings. Warren, who gave up four runs in five innings to the Baltimore Orioles Friday night, owns a 4.44 ERA with 171 strikeouts in 162.1 innings and isn't a real improvement over Gil, though his metrics are slightly better.