Blue Jays won’t go far if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. doesn't heat up

Heading into the final day of the MLB regular season, the Toronto Blue Jays (93-68) are in a battle till the very end with the New York Yankees (93-68) for the AL East division title.

Had anyone pitched that proposition to the organization or fan base back in March, they would have been thrilled to take it. However, the Blue Jays have seen their five-game lead over the Yankees disappear in the last week, and it could force them into a best two out of three wild-card series, where this core group of players has struggled in the past.

As of Saturday night, anything remains possible, including winning the AL East for the first time since 2015, avoiding the wild card, and securing home-field advantage through the ALCS. That is the ultimate goal in Toronto, but in the grand scheme of things, there are more important things that this ball club needs to have happen to make a deep postseason run, division winners or not.

Better pitching from the back end of the starting rotation, more power up and down the lineup, and a healthy Bo Bichette are all vital, but what trumps them all is the performance of superstar first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s up and down 2025

There’s no sugar coating it; it’s been an underwhelming season for Vladdy. The 26-year-old is fresh off signing a massive 14-year, $500 million contract extension with the Blue Jays in early April, which, deserved or not, has changed expectations around him.

When the deal kicks in next season, Guerrero Jr. is poised to be the third-highest-paid player in baseball, and the numbers in 2025 just aren’t even in the same ballpark as the company he’s in when it comes to salary. 

The batting average (.293) and OPS (.851) have remained solid, but the power numbers have not been good enough, and as the Blue Jays have seen their division lead slip away in recent weeks, Guerrero Jr. has looked lost at the plate and frustrated by it all.