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Do advanced stats show Colts' Jones is coming back down to earth?
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones. Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

Do advanced stats show Colts' Daniel Jones is coming back down to earth after hot start?

Quarterback Daniel Jones shockingly emerged as a legitimate Most Valuable Player Award candidate as he guided the Indianapolis Colts to seven wins in his first eight games this season. 

However, Jones largely looked like the signal-caller who went 3-13 in his last 16 starts with the New York Giants when he tossed three interceptions and lost two fumbles in Indianapolis' 27-20 loss at the Pittsburgh Steelers this past Sunday. For a piece published on Tuesday, ESPN's Ben Solak shared that some advanced stats show Jones may be coming back down to earth ahead of Thanksgiving. 

Is Daniel Jones no longer handling pass-rushes as well with Colts? 

"Minus-0.81: That's Daniel Jones' (expected points added) per dropback when pressured over the past two weeks -- the second-worst mark among all quarterbacks. From Weeks 1-7, it was 0.15 -- the best," Solak wrote. "Against the Steelers specifically, Jones averaged minus-1.03 EPA per dropback -- a disastrous day. He was pressured on only 32% of his dropbacks, but went 6-of-13 with two interceptions and five sacks."

Doubters of Jones have routinely referenced throughout the fall that the 28-year-old has benefited from the stellar play of star running back Jonathan Taylor. ESPN stats show that Taylor began Tuesday leading the NFL with 895 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground. 

That said, Jones was more than just a passenger for Indianapolis' seven victories. According to Pro Football Reference, he ended Week 9 leading the league with 2,404 total passing yards for the campaign. He's seventh with a 70.6 adjusted QBR and first with a 54.4 percent passing success rate.

Daniel Jones will need to avoid being haunted by ghosts to continue succeeding with Colts

Jones often took beatings while playing behind awful offensive lines during his Giants tenure. Thus, it was understandable that he seemed to be seeing ghosts during games before he was benched and subsequently released last fall. A fear among Colts fans is that history could repeat itself regarding Jones' play. 

"In his six seasons before this year, Jones had a sack-to-pressure rate of 23.27%, which was a little above league average," Solak added. "From Weeks 1-7 this season, Jones was at 8.57% -- a fraction of his previous career pace. Over the past two weeks? 30.8%. Right back up again."

Jones and the Colts will look to produce a bounce-back performance when 7-2 Indianapolis faces the Atlanta Falcons (3-5) in Berlin this coming Sunday. As of Tuesday afternoon, ESPN BET had the Colts as 5.5-point favorites for that matchup. 

Zac Wassink

Zac Wassink is a longtime sports news writer and PFWA member who began his career in 2006 and has had his work featured on Yardbarker, MSN, Yahoo Sports and Bleacher Report. He is also a football and futbol aficionado who is probably yelling about Tottenham Hotspur at the moment and who chanted for Matt Harvey to start the ninth inning of Game 5 of the 2015 World Series at Citi Field. You can find him on X at @ZacWassink

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