The Big Five: Most dangerous teams currently outside the playoff picture

With just a week until Thanksgiving, the NFL playoff picture is beginning to take shape. 

But seven weeks remain in the regular season, giving teams on the outside looking in time to turn things around. Below, we rank the five most dangerous teams currently not in the playoff field.

5. Houston Texans (5-5, eight in AFC)

Remaining opponents stats | Record: 40-31 (.563) • Currently in playoff field: 4 • Above .500: 4

With a defense as good as Houston's, it can't be taken lightly despite a brutal remaining schedule. Over the Texans' final seven games, they only play two teams currently with a losing record — the Arizona Cardinals (3-7) and Las Vegas Raiders (2-8). With C.J. Stroud (concussion) out for Sunday's game against the Buffalo Bills (7-3), the team's hopes of remaining in contention will be even tougher.

But Houston has won its past two games with Davis Mills at quarterback, thanks in large part to a defense allowing 221 yards per game. The Texans have the league's longest active streak of holding opponents under 200 passing yards (seven games), per Stathead research.

In addition to the Bills, the Texans play the Indianapolis Colts (8-2) twice, Kansas City Chiefs (5-5) and Los Angeles Chargers (7-4), teams that can put up points. Houston, which is No. 21 in scoring offense (22 points per game), likely won't be able to keep pace in shootouts — even when Stroud returns — so it must lean on the defense to complete the long trek from 0-3 to the playoffs.

4. Dallas Cowboys (4-5-1, 10th in NFC)

Remaining opponents stats | Record: 35-38 (.479) • Currently in playoff field: 2 • Above .500: 3

While we can't glean much from Dallas' convincing Monday night win over the directionless Raiders, it was still telling that the defense, a sore spot all season, kept an inept Las Vegas attack from having a season-best performance.

Among the five teams listed here, the Cowboys have the easiest remaining strength of schedule, with more games against teams with losing records (three) than those in the playoff field (two). Their next three games — against the Philadelphia Eagles (8-2), Chiefs and Detroit Lions (6-4) — will inform how heavily Dallas factors into the playoff race through December. But for a team that seemingly had no hope following a Week 9 loss to the Cardinals, Dallas could be feistier down the stretch than most predicted.

3. Detroit Lions (6-4, eighth in NFC)

Remaining opponents stats | Record: 37-32-2 (.521) • Currently in playoff field: 4 • Above .500: 4

Sunday's game against the New York Giants (2-9) is almost a must-win considering what lies ahead for Detroit. Over its final five games, it plays the Green Bay Packers (6-3-1), Los Angeles Rams (8-2), Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) and Chicago Bears (7-3) plus the division-rival Minnesota Vikings (4-6).

The Lions, who rank in the top five in total offense and defense, are more than capable of holding their own against stiff competition, although injures (particularly to the offensive line) have made them more vulnerable than the past two seasons, when they reached the NFC Championship Game (2023) and claimed the conference's No. 1 seed (2024).

2. Kansas City Chiefs (5-5, ninth in AFC)

Remaining opponents stats | Record: 36-35-1 (.500) • Currently in playoff field: 3 • Above .500: 3

ESPN's Bill Barnwell recently laid out a convincing argument why this year's Chiefs squad isn't much different from last year's team that went 15-2. Other than a staggering regression in one-score games and special teams lapses, Kansas City is good enough to go on a run and crash the playoffs. 

The Chiefs' toughest remaining games (Colts, Chargers, Broncos) are at home. They also have a head-to-head with the Texans at Arrowhead. It's far too early to write Kansas City's obituary. The AFC West might be out of play, yet NFL Next Gen Stats still gives the Chiefs a 52 percent chance of making the playoffs. However, NFL.com's Ali Bhanpuri noted in a recently column that Kansas City's odds will drop to less than 33 percent with a loss this Sunday to Indianapolis.

1. Baltimore Ravens (5-5, 10th in AFC)

Remaining opponents stats | Record: 35-35-1 (.493) • Currently in playoff field: 3 •  Above .500: 4

The Ravens are just one game out of first in the AFC North and have the New York Jets (2-8) and Cincinnati Bengals (3-7) on the schedule before the first of two games with the division-leading Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4). By the end of the first weekend in December, Baltimore, which has won four in a row following a Week 7 bye, could easily be in pole position for a third straight AFC North title.