
Let's not discount anything Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has accomplished in his NFL career thus far.
At 30, the three-time Super Bowl champion and two-time league MVP already has a Hall of Fame-worthy résumé. But the superstar hasn't been as dominant this season, which is a key reason the 5-5 Chiefs are at risk of missing the playoffs. Even he's willing to admit that.
"Yeah, I'm just not making the throws, that's the biggest thing," Mahomes told the media Wednesday. "Guys are getting open and giving me chances to make plays down the field, and I just gotta give them chances to make plays."
Mahomes has been missing open targets more often than in previous seasons. According to Pro Football Reference, only 74.7 percent of his throws have been on target this season, which is his lowest mark since they started tracking this stat in 2019. He ranks 22nd out of 35 eligible passers in this advanced stat. (On-target throws are defined as those that are thrown accurately to the intended pass-catcher, regardless of whether he catches it or not.)
Mahomes' accuracy issues were evident on deep passes in a 22-19 loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 11. On the game's opening drive, he missed a deep throw to wide receiver Xavier Worthy on a would-be touchdown. He subsequently missed deep passes to tight end Noah Gray and wideout Tyquan Thornton, which forced the Chiefs to punt.
Mahomes has had many opportunities to hit open players downfield this season and in the past few seasons, but he routinely overthrows his guys. The protection is excellent. Kelce getting open forces the middle safety to trigger, leaving Worthy open. He has to hit it pic.twitter.com/LZi6lptcyP
— Daniel Harms (@InHarmsWay19) November 17, 2025
"And I think that's something I can learn from, with guys like Xavier early, is that it might not be the perfect pass that's going to be a touchdown catch," the QB said of these misses. "But if I can throw the ball and just give him a chance to make a play, he'll make a play on it."
Now, calling Mahomes dreadful this season would be foolish. After 11 weeks, he still ranks fourth in the league in passing yards (2,625) and third in QBR (72.7) and is tied for seventh in TD passes (18).
However, if he could be a bit more precise for the rest of the season, it would make a massive difference for the Chiefs, who have a crucial Week 12 matchup against the Indianapolis Colts (8-2). Per The Athletic's NFL Playoff Simulator, Kansas City's playoff chances drop from 56 to 39 percent if it loses Sunday's home game. Its chances increase to 67 percent if it wins.
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