Trading for Tristan Jarry a reasonable risk for cornered Oilers

What does Tristan Jarry look like in Edmonton's crease?

On-ice, this has the potential to be a short-term win for Edmonton. Goaltending is maybe the weirdest position in sports, often prone to wild statistical fluctuations that can be caused by how the goalie is playing or by how the team in front of him is playing or random chance — sometimes all three at the same time. 

Once comfortable, it's plausible Jarry could continue to look like the player he has in 2025-26, a guy who has regained his form playing for a Pittsburgh team that isn't quite lock-it-down defensively. Teams sometimes get short-term boosts in these deals. It can be harder for opponents to crack a goalie where there's no real tape associated with how the goalie plays within the confines of a certain system.

By the numbers, Tristan Jarry is the better goalie

Jarry's .892 save percentage last season was the worst of his career since becoming a full-time NHLer. His .909 this season is right in-line with his career average. He's also ranked 16 out of 81 goaltenders in MoneyPuck's Goals Saved Above Expected statistic.

Skinner, meanwhile, is in the midst of his third consecutive season with a declining save percentage. He's had moments of brilliance, evidenced by being a net positive in Goals Saved Above Expected. 

The Oilers are 10th in high danger chances allowed per 60 minutes at five-on-five, according to Natural Stat Trick. They are worse when filtered for all scoring chances. Their goalies have provided the worst save percentage in the league against high danger chances at five-on-five, according to Natural Stat Trick. 

Financially, this deal favors Pittsburgh. Penguins GM Kyle Dubas did well to get out of the last two years of Jarry's contract, which Edmonton will now be on the hook for in 2026-27 and 2027-28. PuckPedia projects the Penguins with $53M in cap space next season following this trade. 

It's a necessary gamble for the Oilers because of Connor McDavid's uncertain future status. GM Stan Bowman can only hope it doesn't cost Edmonton the greatest player of his generation.