What is Auston Matthews' ceiling after becoming Maple Leafs' all-time goal leader?

Only nine players in league history have scored more goals by the end of their age 28 season, and Matthews is on a pace that is right in step with what Washington Capitals superstar Alex Ovechkin did to open his career.

In Ovechkin's first 679 games through the end of his age 28 season, he scored 422 goals.

Matthews is already at 421 goals through 664 games. That actually puts him ahead of Ovechkin's pace.

Ovechkin, of course, is currently the NHL's all-time goal-scoring leader with 912 career goals through play on Saturday. 

How high can Auston Matthews fly?

It would be expecting too much to assume Matthews will continue matching Ovechkin's career, mostly because Ovechkin is a one-of-a-kind player, one of the best players in the history of the sport, and a truly age-defying player that has destroyed everything we think we know about player aging curves in the NHL. 

Not everybody is going to do that.

The overwhelming majority of players will not be able to keep producing that much into their late 30s in the NHL. 

It is still fascinating to see what sort of pace Matthews is on. Especially when you consider how much time he has missed throughout his career due to injuries and shortened seasons. Entering this season he had played more than 70 games in just five of his first nine seasons in the league, while consistently scoring at 40-50 goal paces in all of them. With some better injury luck, and without the two Covid shortened seasons, he would almost certainly already be above the 500-goal mark.

At his current pace, he should eclipse it at some point next season. 

Assuming he stays healthy, 600 goals seems like a lock at some point over the next four or five years, and 700 is certainly within reach for his career.

But what is his ceiling? Matthews has averaged a 52-goal pace per 82 games throughout his career. Even if you account for age and that number coming down as he gets older, if he averaged even a 35-or 40-goal pace over the next 10 years that would put him in the 800-plus goal range by his age 38 season. A 45-goal pace over the next decade would be pushing the 880-goal mark. That would put him within striking distance of the top-three, and perhaps even the top spot. 

You would not expect that for most players, but Matthews is not like most players. He has clearly established himself as a top-tier goal-scorer and one of the best of this era. At his current pace he could eventually end up being one of the best to ever play in the NHL.