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New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye | David Butler II-Imagn Images

Why Patriots QB Drake Maye merits MVP more than the Rams' Matthew Stafford

By Pierce Downey | Last updated Jan 16, 2026 2:15 PM ET

After a hugely successful regular season, second-year New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye has emerged as a leading contender for the NFL Most Valuable Player award.

According to ESPN Bet, Maye and Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford are the top two favorites, with the New England signal-caller holding the best odds at +225 as of Jan. 16.

This season, Maye threw for 31 touchdowns against just eight interceptions, while Stafford posted 46 touchdowns with the same interception total.

Supporters of Stafford’s candidacy often point to Maye’s relatively easier schedule and lower touchdown total, but those arguments fail to hold up under closer examination.

Here’s why Maye deserves to be named the 2025 NFL MVP, which will be announced Feb. 5:

Quality of TDs

Raw touchdown totals don’t tell the full story. Context matters.

Of Stafford’s 46 touchdown passes, 13 came from the opponent’s three-yard line or closer. His average touchdown throw traveled 13.8 yards.

Maye, by contrast, threw only six touchdowns from inside the three-yard line, and his average touchdown pass traveled 18.33 yards.

While Stafford’s volume statistics are impressive, a deeper look reveals that Maye generated his production from more difficult throws, strengthening his MVP case.

Other advanced stats

Advanced analytics further separate the two quarterbacks. Expected points added per play (EPA) and completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) are two of the best indicators of quarterback efficiency.

The elite performers reside in the top-right quadrant when these metrics are charted together. By those standards, Maye stands clearly above the field, outperforming Stafford across both measures.

Drake Maye should be the MVP. pic.twitter.com/NgHXHK1GC8
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) January 5, 2026

Drake Maye has higher completion percentage than Matthew Stafford

Perhaps the strongest pillar of Maye’s resume is his accuracy. Maye completed 72% of his regular-season passes, compared to Stafford’s 65%.

According to NFL Next Gen Stats, both quarterbacks averaged 9.1 air yards per attempt, meaning Maye’s superior completion rate was not the product of shorter or safer throws.

While Stafford attempted 105 more passes, a seven-percent gap in completion percentage is too substantial to dismiss.

Rams QB Matthew Stafford has better pieces around him

The talent surrounding each quarterback further underscores Maye’s value.

Stafford benefited from two elite receivers in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. Nacua, just 24, is already among the NFL’s best wideouts. After setting the rookie receiving yardage record in 2024, he followed it up with a first-team All-Pro season in 2025 (1,715 yards, 10 touchdown receptions).

Adams, 33, a future Hall of Famer, remained productive as well, totaling 789 yards and 14 touchdown catches. Maye’s receiving corps was far less proven.

Stefon Diggs entered the season coming off ACL surgery and was no longer viewed as an elite option. Nevertheless, he exceeded expectations with 1,013 yards and four touchdown catches. Kayshon Boutte, meanwhile, entered 2025 with just 608 career receiving yards.

Playing with Maye, he produced the best season of his career (551 yards, six touchdown catches). While Diggs and Boutte form a solid duo, they do not approach the star power of Nacua and Adams. That Maye matched Stafford’s efficiency despite a less explosive supporting cast further strengthens his MVP argument.

Key word: Valuable

Maye has more than a decade left in the NFL, while Stafford has a few years. MVP is technically a regular-season award that solely evaluates player performance in 2025, but because the race is close, voters may resort to other metrics to determine who the most valuable player truly is.

When all factors are considered — efficiency, difficulty of production, supporting cast and overall impact — the case is clear.

Drake Maye is NFL MVP.

Pierce Downey

Pierce Downey is a Texas-based Patriots fan who has previously written for Stadium Rant and Around The Block Network in the past. Downey also appears on numerous podcasts and talk shows to discuss football. You can follow him on Twitter @patsdowney.

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