Countdown to the Australian Open: Time for Carlos Alcaraz to Exorcise Demons

Carlos Alcaraz has done very little wrong in his young career. But there is one glaring exception: he’s been surprisingly mediocre in Australia.

Despite multiple attempts, the Spaniard has yet to leave a significant mark at the Australian Open. Sure, some years were derailed by physical issues, but even when he arrived healthy and ready, the results have been underwhelming. Four attempts, zero semifinals. For a player of his caliber, that’s borderline unacceptable.

The 2026 edition offers him another chance to fix this, and the pressure is mounting. The Australian Open is the only Grand Slam missing from his trophy cabinet. It’s the final piece he needs to complete the career Grand Slam. Motivation shouldn’t be an issue. So why hasn’t it happened yet?

The Alcaraz Melbourne Mystery

It’s a genuinely intriguing question because there’s no obvious culprit. No single factor explains it. Instead, it’s a combination of circumstances that seem to conspire against him every January.

Alcaraz himself has admitted that the tournament’s timing plays a role. Coming so early in the season, often as his first proper competitive event, he simply doesn’t have the rhythm yet. His tennis needs matches to find its groove, and Melbourne doesn’t give him that luxury.

He’s denied that the conditions bother him, that the courts don’t suit his game, or that anything specific about the event throws him off. And honestly? He’s probably right. There’s nothing inherently problematic about Melbourne for a player of his style, which makes his struggles all the more baffling.

The good news is that he’s looked progressively better with each appearance.

The trajectory is pointing upward. But trajectory means nothing without results, and 2026 needs to be the year he breaks through. Can he make a significant leap? Can he challenge Jannik Sinner’s growing dominance down under? Or will we see another disappointing early exit?

What’s Actually at Stake

Let’s be clear about what this means. Yes, legacy matters. Missing out on winning a Grand Slam would impact his legacy, but this goes deeper than that.

This is about proving that Australia isn’t exclusively Sinner’s domain. The Italian has made Melbourne his personal fortress, winning back-to-back titles and looking increasingly untouchable on those courts. Alcaraz needs to show that he can compete there, that the surface and conditions don’t favor his rival by default.

More importantly, this is about proving something to himself. That there’s no mental block. No mysterious weakness that emerges every January. He can dominate anywhere, anytime, against anyone.

Right now, Alcaraz is widely considered the best player in the world. But another letdown in Melbourne would mark the third consecutive year where he’s failed to make a meaningful impact at a tournament where he was expected to contend.

That’s not just disappointing. It’s a pattern. And patterns become narratives.

And let’s not forget the coaching situation. The offseason brought plenty of drama and speculation about his team. People will be watching closely to see if those changes translate into results or if the disruption affects his performance.

What Happens in 2026?

Predicting Alcaraz is tricky business. His struggles in Melbourne are real and documented. You can’t just hand-wave them away. On the other hand, he’s capable of playing tennis that feels unfair to everyone else on the planet. When he’s locked in, he’s virtually unstoppable.

Here’s what we expect: a highly motivated Alcaraz who’s acutely aware of what this tournament means. He knows the stakes. He knows the narrative. He knows that another early exit would hurt.

Will that be enough to win the title? That remains to be seen. Sinner will be lurking, probably as the favorite. Djokovic might have one more run left in him. The draw could throw up unexpected challenges.

But we think Alcaraz will make the semifinals at the very least this time. Anything less would be a genuine disappointment and would raise serious questions about whether Melbourne is simply his kryptonite.

The talent is there. The motivation is there. Now we’ll find out if that’s finally enough.