Mel Kiper Jr. makes big statement about Raiders, Lamar Jackson trade rumors via mock draft

Not long after a story suggested that Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson may want to play for the Las Vegas Raiders, Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk mentioned that Raiders minority owner Tom Brady could "take a big swing...if Jackson is ready to take his bat and ball to a new city." 

The Raiders obviously wouldn't spend the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft on a quarterback if they acquired Jackson ahead of the player-selection process. In his mock draft posted on Wednesday morning, well-known ESPN draft guru Mel Kiper Jr. seemed to say plenty about the Jackson-Raiders rumors when Kiper predicted that Las Vegas will grab Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza with overall pick No. 1.

Raiders have "easy" decision between Fernando Mendoza, Lamar Jackson?

"This is an easy one," Kiper wrote. "...Mendoza could join Joe Burrow and Cam Newton in going undefeated for the season, winning the Heisman Trophy and the national championship, and going No. 1 in the draft all inside a 12-month window. Mendoza transferred to the Hoosiers from Cal and immediately leveled up, throwing 41 touchdown passes and just six interceptions in 2025. I see great ball placement on the tape, and he's a no-brainer to begin Round 1. Las Vegas could start to build something offensively here with Mendoza, running back Ashton Jeanty and tight end Brock Bowers." 

Unlike Mendoza, Jackson is a proven commodity who is in his physical prime and has two MVP Awards on his career resume. Brady allegedly thought the 2025 Raiders had a roster capable of winning more than three games, so it's fair to wonder if he would push general manager John Spytek to give a to-be-hired head coach Jackson instead of Mendoza as his QB1. 

Why Raiders would pick Fernando Mendoza over Lamar Jackson

Mendoza's talent aside, history shows that general managers and first-year head coaches prefer to be married to exciting quarterback prospects on rookie contracts. Jackson signed a five-year contract reportedly worth up to $260M with $185M guaranteed in the spring of 2023, and he's looking to ink a lucrative extension this offseason. 

Additionally, there are concerns about Jackson's durability. Injuries caused him to miss 11 games (playoffs included) from Week 1 of the 2021 season through the 2022 campaign. More recently, he was limited to 13 starts this season due to hamstring and back issues.