The stars have aligned for USA men's hockey team to end gold-medal drought

The USA men's Olympic hockey team has not won a gold medal since the 1980 Miracle On Ice team, and they entered the 2026 games expecting to break that drought.

While there are one or two questionable roster decisions with the construction of the team, it is arguably the most talented team they have ever sent to the games and is, at worst, the second-best team in the field on paper. 

That alone should make some sort of a medal an expectation, and anything less than bronze a major disappointment.

But given the way the tournament has developed for them going into Friday's semifinal game against Slovakia, their expectations should be entirely on gold. 

The stars have aligned for the USA men's hockey team at the 2026 Olympics

Aside from being absolutely loaded with talent, the United States has had several major breaks go their way, from the group they were placed in, to the way the knockout rounds have played out.

Because the United States entered the tournament as the top-ranked team in the IIHF rankings, they received the most favorable group placement among the gold medal contenders. Their group, consisting of Latvia, Denmark and Germany, did not have another team ranked higher than seventh in the most recent IIHF World Rankings. 

By comparison, Canada had to compete with two other top-five teams (Czechia and Switzerland) in its group, while Group B had two of the top-six teams (Sweden and Finland).

As expected, the United States cruised through its group and was never seriously challenged, outscoring its three opponents by a 16-5 margin. 

While their quarterfinal matchup against Sweden was a brutally tough matchup on paper, they had a massive scheduling advantage. Because Sweden failed to secure a top-four finish through group play, it had to play an opening round playoff game. That meant its quarterfinal game against the United States was its second game in two days, while the United States was rested with two days off. That is a massive scheduling advantage that shifted the odds in the United States' favor. 

Sweden also had to play that entire game down one of its best defenseman when Tampa Bay Lightning star Victor Hedman was injured in pre-game warmups and unable to play. 

Add in another questionable coaching decision by Sweden to basically bench one of its top forwards — Jesper Bratt (New Jersey Devils) for most of the game, and it softened the matchup even more. 

Now they get a Slovakia team on Friday in the semifinal that entered the tournament ranked ninth in the world. While Slovakia has wildly exceeded expectations, and has a bright young star in Juraj Slafkovsky (Montreal Canadiens), it is still a big talent advantage for the United States on paper.

It is a game they will be expected to win.

Including Slovakia, the average IIHF ranking of the United States opponents in the tournament through the semifinal is 7.6. 

Compare that to Canada who has had to play four games against teams ranking in the top six (Switzerland, two games against Czechia and Finland in the semifinal) and whose average opponent ranking is 6.4 in the IIHF worldwide ranking. Even that ranking is slightly inflated by getting their one group game against No. 14-ranked France. If you eliminate both team's lowest ranked opponent (Latvia for the US; France for Canada) the United States average opponent ranking has been seventh, while Canada's has been 4.5 worldwide. 

The path has been in their favor. They have been fully healthy, which has been a big change from the 4 Nations Face-off tournament when star defenseman Quinn Hughes (Minnesota Wild) was not available. Their best opponent so far (Sweden) was not, and was tired. They may get Canada in a potential gold medal game without Sidney Crosby (Pittsburgh Penguins), or at least a less than 100 percent Crosby. 

They not only have the talent, but the stars have aligned for them. Anything less than silver over the next four days should be seen as a disappointment, or perhaps even a total failure. Everything is right there for the taking.