Why Islanders' Matthew Schaefer is runaway favorite for NHL's Calder Trophy

Even though there is more than a month remaining in the 2025-26 NHL regular season, there is one individual award race that you can probably wrap up and stop discussing. It is the Calder Trophy (Rookie of the Year) race, and it should belong to New York Islanders defenseman Matthew Schaefer. 

It is his. Take it to the bank. Set it in stone. Write it in ink. Any other cliche you want to use here, apply it. He is going to win it. As he should. 

The only question that should remain is whether or not anybody else in this rookie class can even wrestle a first-place vote away from him. It is hard to make an argument for why anybody should.

Matthew Schaefer is running away with Calder Trophy race

It is not that this is a bad rookie class. Because it quite simply is not. 

Between Ben Kindel (Pittsburgh Penguins), Beckett Sennecke (Anaheim Ducks), Ivan Demidov (Montreal Canadiens), Ryan Leonard (Washington Capitals), Oliver Kapanen (Montreal Canadiens) and Fraser Minten (Boston Bruins), there are a lot of really good, really impactful first-year players who have helped their teams. It is, objectively speaking, a really strong group of rookies. 

As good as that group has been, though, nobody really comes close to matching the impact that Schaefer has made for the Islanders.

With two more goals on Sunday night in a 5-4 win against the Florida Panthers, Schaefer is now up to 18 goals for the season and closing in on the record for most goals ever scored by a rookie defenseman. That mark currently sits at 23 goals and belongs to former New York Rangers defenseman Brian Leetch.

Schaefer still has 21 games remaining this season to top it, and given his current pace, he not only seems on track to do so, but he seems on track to run circles around it. 

He is already one of just four rookie defensemen to ever score 20 goals, joining a list that includes only Leetch, Barry Beck and Dion Phaneuf. 

What stands out about that list is the ages of the players involved. All three of Leetch, Beck and Phaneuf were 20 years old in their rookie seasons. 

Schaefer, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NHL Draft, is only 18 years old and has gone right from junior hockey into the NHL. That sort of development path is almost unheard of for a defenseman, especially when it comes with this sort of immediate impact.

It is not just the goal-scoring numbers that make him an immediate star. It is also the fact he is playing the role of a No. 1 defenseman on a potential playoff team, and also playing it exceptionally well. 

Going into Sunday's game, the Islanders were outscoring opponents by a 48-36 margin with Schaefer on the ice during 5-on-5 play. When he is off the ice, they were being outscored by a 63-70 margin. Most rookie defensemen, especially at this age, get put into highly sheltered roles where they are almost hidden from any tough minutes. The Islanders have done the opposite and simply allowed Schaefer to play like a grizzled veteran. He is not only holding his own for an 18-year-old; he is quite simply dominating. 

Schaeffer has completely transformed their short-term expectations and long-term ceiling. All of that together with the individual production makes him the runaway favorite for the Rookie of the Year.