
Each year when the bracket is officially revealed ahead of the NCAA Tournament, fans immediately start looking for which mid-major teams are poised to pull off an upset.
However, with Name, Image and Likeness (NIL) and the transfer portal at the forefront of today's college basketball landscape, could the days of those upsets be coming to an end?
That is certainly a question worth asking, especially when you consider the lack of upsets in recent editions of the Big Dance. Former NCAA champion and current ESPN analyst Jay Williams was on Thursday's edition of "First Take" and made it clear how he feels about the potential of Cinderella teams going forward.
"Hear me on this one, Cinderellas are dead," Williams said. "... If you're a player who's averaging 18 (points) on a Cinderella team, you know what I'm going to do if I'm at the bottom of the ACC? 'Oh, I'll give you $600,000, come on over here. Come on, play with me at Boston College.' And that's what's happening over and over and over again, so I don't think we're gonna see the same amount of Cinderella runs as deep because all these guys are being picked off those teams to some of the lower-tier power-four conferences."
"Cinderellas are dead."
— First Take (@FirstTake) March 5, 2026
—@RealJayWilliams on Cinderella teams in the NCAA Tournament pic.twitter.com/h07q4KuNeu
This is something we have heard from Williams last season as well, so it is something he has made his opinion clear on. He is not entirely wrong, though, when you consider the lack of upsets that took place just as recently as last season.
One year ago, 10-seeds Arkansas and New Mexico, 11-seed Drake and 12-seeds McNeese and Colorado State were the only double-digit seeds to advance out of the first round. Aside from 10-seed Arkansas, which is in the SEC anyway, there were no other double-digit seeds in the Sweet 16.
Unlike the Final Four runs from George Mason (2006), VCU (2011) and Loyola-Chicago (2018), the 2025 NCAA Tournament clearly lacked that same type of magical run that fans have come to expect.
This season, undefeated and Associated Press No. 19 Miami (Ohio) (30-0, 17-0 MAC) is a perfect example of the current issues in the sport. Although the RedHawks head into Friday's regular-season finale against Ohio with a chance to go unblemished heading into postseason play, their weak schedule will likely keep them out of the NCAA Tournament if they fail to win the MAC Tournament next week.
That does not mean that Miami (Ohio) or any other mid-major program is not capable of winning a game or two in the Big Dance. After all, any team can get hot at the right time and get the upper hand when it is a win-or-go-home situation.
However, as a lot of talented players from smaller schools transfer to power-conference programs, it is hard to dispute what Williams is saying. It does not entirely mean that "Cinderellas are dead" and that it is impossible for them to have the success they once had.
With that said, it may not be as common anymore and could be a prevailing theme once again this season. If that is the case, it may be harder to dispute that notion if chalk holds up throughout the tournament once again.
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