Setting up the major stat races on the NHL’s stretch drive

The Storyline: Surprise. It’s the league’s three most dynamic forwards — Connor McDavid, Nikita Kucherov, and Nathan MacKinnon — duking it out for another scoring title. McDavid (five Art Ross Trophies) and Kucherov (three) have combined for eight of the last nine points titles. MacKinnon, runner-up to Kucherov the last two seasons, is chasing his first. Despite the advanced stats and context available today, the scoring race remains the ultimate individual crown.

Milestones: A sixth or fourth Ross, respectively, would move McDavid or Kucherov into an even higher stratosphere of point-scoring greatness.

• Macklin Celebrini (age-19 season) is comfortably on pace to become the youngest 100-point scorer since Sidney Crosby’s sophomore season (2006-07).
• Mark Scheifiele, Martin Necas, and Nick Suzuki are also chasing their first 100-point seasons.
  

Who Will Finish #1?: McDavid has the most scoring titles. Kucherov is the hottest. MacKinnon has been the steadiest. As unsatisfying at it might be, health and load management may decide the race. Last April, MacKinnon sat out the season’s final three games, losing the crown by five points to Kucherov. Whoever plays the most minutes the next five weeks may outlast the pack. I’ll take the sizzling Kucherov by a nose for the three-peat.

Goals

The Storyline: Will MacKinnon hold off the field to win his first Rocket Richard Trophy? Last year’s goal-scoring champ, Leon Draisaitl, is nine back of the Colorado Avalanche captain. So, there’s likely to be a new sniping sheriff in town. Montreal ‘s Cole Caufield has the second-best pace, having already matched his career-high 37 goals. A hat trick or hot stick could still move a dozen different players into MacKinnon’s blind spot.

Milestones: While MacKinnon’s goal-scoring pace has cooled lately (five in 15 games), he’s tracking for one of the best goal outputs of the salary cap era (since 2005-06).

• MacKinnon is looking to join only five snipers with two or more 50-goal seasons in the cap era (Ovechkin, 9; Draisaitl, 4; Matthews, 2; Stamkos, 2).
• Caufield is chasing franchise history — remarkably, no Canadien has scored 50 in 36 years (Stephanie Richer in 1989-90).
• If any of Caufield, Matt Boldy, Jason Robertson, or Tage Thompson finishes on a goal-scorer bender, he’d join only Matthews and Chris Kreider as American 50-goal scorers in the cap era.
  

Who Will Finish #1?: Much like in his Hart Trophy-winning run in 2023-24, MacKinnon has played at a delirious pace since opening night. Assuming good health, it should be a breeze for the 30-year-old Nova Scotian to capture his first Rocket.

⛔ Defenseman Points

The Storyline: In a golden age of offensive defensemen, who will emerge as the position’s point leader? Red-hot Evan Bouchard leads the pack, rocking ten multi-point games since Jan. 6. The points leader has won the Norris Trophy in three consecutive years, including Cale Makar last season. So, there may be more on the line than a statistical feat.

Milestones: Bouchard has an outside shot at 100 points. Only six defensemen have done it in NHL history, and only Erik Karlsson reached the mark in the last 34 years. Here are the cap era single-season leaders:

• There have been six 86-point seasons by defenders in the cap era. Makar is on pace for his fourth.
• The Habs record for points by a defenseman? Larry Robinson’s 85 in 1976-77. Lane Huston is on a collision course with a 49-year-old record from a bygone era.
  

Who Will Finish #1?: Makar isn’t going away, but the first-place Avalanche won’t have a lot to play for down the stretch. Werenski will have plenty to play for and had he not missed seven games, both the points and Norris races might have a clear front-runner. But I’m all in on Bouchard given the torrid pace at which the Edmonton Oilers are scoring (and allowing) goals lately.

Rookie Points

The Storyline: New York Islanders ‘ 18-year-old prodigy Matthew Schaefer has the Calder Trophy secured already. But in a three-rookie race, which future star will lead in points?

Milestones: It’s rare to both play enough and play well enough as a rookie to score 60 points in the modern NHL. Below are the six 60-point rookies of the last five seasons — three young guns are looking to join the club on the stretch drive.

• All-time record alert: Schaefer needs four goals in his final 17 games to break the goals record for rookie defensemen, held by Brian Leetch (23). He’s currently on pace for 25.
• Sennecke needs 11 points in his final 19 games to break Zegras’ Anaheim Ducks rookie record.
  

Who Will Finish #1?: While they’re only separated by two points, I’ll take Sennecke over Demidov as he’s shooting more and getting more ice time. Doubt Schaefer at your own peril, but he’ll need a late surge to pass Sennecke.

Goalie Wins

The Storyline: The 40-win goalie is as rare as a two-pad stack these days. With start count trending down , goalies have two options to flirt with 40 wins: play at an all-world level on an elite team, or combine a heavy workload and good fortune. Vezina conversation fixture Andrei Vasilevskiy is taking the first option and unheralded Utah Mammoth goaltender Karel Vejmelka (league-high 50 starts, 8-2 overtime record) is riding the second option.

Milestones: Vasilevskiy and Vejmelka are trying to join just three goaltenders since 2018-19 in the now-exclusive 40-win club:

• Vasilevskiy’s next win will give him nine 30-win seasons, tying Marc-Andre Fleury, and trailing only Henrik Lundqvist’s 11 for most in the cap era.
• At 25-4-1, Carolina‘s Brandon Bussi’s .850 points percentage is the fourth-highest mark in NHL history (minimum 30 starts). He’ll need to go 9-1-0 to top Ullmark’s post-expansion record (.862).
  

Who Will Finish #1?: Vejmelka isn’t taking many nights off and the Mammoth are rolling. Look for him to hold off Vasilevskiy but fall shy of 40 from dialing back starts ahead of the postseason.

Quick Hits

• Power Play Goals: Dallas‘ Wyatt Johnston (21 in 64 games) is on pace for 27 power play goals. That would tie for second most of the cap era — Draisaitl’s 32 in 2022-23 is out of reach.
• Even-Strength Points: MacKinnon (80 in 62 games) is on pace for 105 even-strength points — the biggest non-Gretzky total ever. Seriously. MacKinnon’s 92 in 2023-24 are the cap era’s record.
• Assists: If McDavid can hold off Kucherov for the assist crown, it would be his fifth — tying him with Bobby Orr for second-most. Gretzky’s 16 titles is unbreakable.
• Plus-Minus: A flawed stat, yes, but MacKinnon (plus-55 in 62 games) is nonetheless projecting to shatter the cap era mark. His plus-72 pace would sail by Johnny Gaudreau’s plus-64 (2021-22).
• Shots on Goal: MacKinnon is at least 38 shots ahead of everyone, so he’s likely to lead the NHL for a fifth time. Only Ovechkin (11) and Bobby Hull (seven) have done it more times.
• Team Points: Colorado (95 points in 63 games) is on a 124-point pace, set to coast to the Presidents’ Trophy and tie the third-best total of the cap era — Boston‘s 135 in 2022-23 are the all-time record.
• Team Goals Allowed: It’s the Avalanche (2.44 per game) again, with a cozy lead on Dallas in the William Jennings Trophy race. Scott Wedgewood and Mackenzie Blackwood would share the honor.
• Team Power Play: Edmonton’s 33.1% rate remains ahead of their own record (32.4%), set in 2022-23. Power play conversion was first tracked in 1977-78.
  

Data from Hockey-Reference; NHL.com; Elite Prospects

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