Ranking March Madness No. 12 vs. No. 5 games by likelihood of an upset

4. No. 12 Northern Iowa vs. No. 5 St. John's

There's no saying that Northern Iowa can't pull off the upset over St. John's. Going into the NCAA Tournament, it just seems the least likely out of all of the 12-5 matchups. 

This, as St. John's rides into the NCAA Tournament a little underrated, having won the Big East Tournament in convincing fashion. It's also averaging 81.6 points and 38.6 rebounds per game. ESPN's BPI is giving St. John's an 85% chance to win. Meanwhile, the spread on this one is at 10.5 points, per DraftKings.

3. No. 12 McNeese State vs. No. 5 Vanderbilt

Winners of the Southland Tournament, McNeese State is in its third straight NCAA Tournament. So, even with Bill Armstrong in his first year as a head coach, there is a level of comfort for the Cowboys. It also doesn't hurt that they're putting up 80 points and 10.5 steals per game.

On the other hand, Vanderbilt is a tough draw that was battle-tested by the SEC. At 26-8 on the season, Vanderbilt has won four of five. BPI also gives the Commodores an 81.2% chance to win. That's on an 11.5 point spread.

2. No. 12 Akron vs. No. 5 Texas Tech

The Akron Zips had a phenomenal season, going on to win the MAC Tournament and arguably having a better resume than Miami (OH), which went unbeaten in the MAC regular season. That was with 88.4 points per game and 50% shooting from the field. Now, they'll have a chance to prove that against a Big 12 opponent.

Having lost three straight games, Texas Tech is struggling going into the NCAA Tournament. Still, BPI gives the Red Raiders an 82% chance to win, and Vegas has the spread at 7.5 points. There's certainly more talent on the Red Raiders' bench, but they need to figure out their recent slide quickly. 

1. No. 12 High Point vs. No. 5 Wisconsin

Going into the NCAA Tournament, it looks as though High Point has the best chance at pulling off a 12-seed vs. five-seed upset. Winners of the Big South, both in the regular season and conference tournament, the Panthers are riding  a 14-game winning streak. That's on the back of an elite offense, scoring 90 points a game. High Point is also putting up 10.9 steals per game. 

Between excellent shooting and an aggressive defense, High Point can give almost anyone trouble. That's going to include Wisconsin, coming in after winning five of six. BPI is giving Wisconsin a 76.3% chance to win, which is the lowest of the five seeds. Meanwhile, Vegas has the spread at 9.5 points.