
Nothing in sports is predictable — and the NHL is proving it. Even the smartest models, stat nerds and armchair analysts couldn’t have forecasted everything unfolding this season.
From teen phenoms rewriting the record books to teams nobody expected to challenge for the playoffs, surprises are coming fast and furious. Here are the five biggest shocks so far:
If you haven't watched San Jose or the New York Islanders this season, you're missing out on history. San Jose's Celebrini, 19, and New York's Schaefer, 18, the past two No. 1 overall draft picks in the NHL, have been stellar. Celebrini is five points from becoming the third-fastest teen (behind Wayne Gretzky and Sidney Crosby) to score 100 points in a season. Schaefer's 20 goals are a record for an 18-year-old defenseman, surpassing Hall of Famer Phil Housley.
Macklin Celebrini is now on pace to hit 100 points in 65 games this season.
— Frank Seravalli (@frank_seravalli) December 30, 2025
Five teenagers in #NHL history have scored 100 in a season. It's possible only one did it faster.
Gretzky - 1979-80 - Game 61
Crosby - 2006-07 - Game 65
Lemieux - 1984-85 - Game 73
Hawerchuk - 1981-82 -…
Pittsburgh, Boston and the New York Islanders were supposed to be bad this season.
Pittsburgh entered the season as the only team actively trying to strategically retreat by selling off assets and bringing in a new, upstart coach.
Boston finished 2024-25 as the second-worst team by points percentage after the trade deadline.
The Islanders were embarrassed, allowing nine goals in a late-season loss to the New York Rangers, traded defenseman Noah Dobson and appeared to be looking long term.
But all three in a playoff spot with four weeks remaining in the regular season. Meanwhile, the Buffalo Sabres looked to be off to another lost season. Now they're an inexplicable 28-6-2 since firing GM Kevyn Adams and could win the Atlantic Division.
The Sabres are up 16-2 in the 145:19 5v5 minutes Rasmus Dahlin has played since the Olympic Break
— Dimitri Filipovic (@DimFilipovic) March 11, 2026
Everyone knew top center Alex Barkov would miss the regular season. Everyone knew winger Matthew Tkachuk wouldn't be available to start the season. Everyone knew the Panthers would be relying heavily on 37-year-old stars in goalie Sergei Bobrovsky and winger Brad Marchand. Yet, despite it all, the party line remained the same — the Panthers will find a way.
But Florida is 4-6-0 since the Olympic break ended, including an uncompetitive 5-2 loss to the league's worst team, Vancouver. It was always plausible that Florida would labor to get into the playoffs with everything working against them, but the Panthers could wind up missing the Eastern Conference playoffs by as many as 15 points.
No matter what you thought about the Leafs as a playoff team, this regular-season implosion is uncharacteristic. The Leafs, like the 2024-25 New York Rangers, are amidst a season defined by Murphy's Law — anything bad that can happen is happening for Toronto, which sits in seventh in the Atlantic Division.
From a health perspective, it's been a little of everything: multiple goaltender injuries, a critical defenseman in Chris Tanev missing nearly the entire season, repeated injuries to star center Auston Matthews culminating with a season-ending injury in March and nonstop questions about the front office and coaching staff.
As of March 18, Detroit and Boston are tied with 82 points in 68 games. By points percentage, both trail Columbus, which has 81 points in 67 games. One of these teams is likely to miss the playoffs, even though all three are on pace for 98 points or more.
No team has finished with 98 points and missed the postseason; the current record for a team to miss the playoffs is 96 points, which has happened four times: Boston (2015), Florida (2018), Montreal (2019) and Calgary (2025).
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