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2026 MLB predictions: Aaron Judge makes more history, surprise seller, World Series winner
New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge | Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

2026 MLB predictions: Aaron Judge makes more history, surprise seller, World Series winner

Major League Baseball is back Wednesday, and with it comes the long, unpredictable grind of a 162-game season. Before it all unfolds, here are 10 predictions — from history-chasing milestones to a few curveballs you won’t see coming.

New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge reaches 400 home runs ... by All-Star break

The three-time AL MVP is nearing 400 career home runs faster than any player in MLB history. MLB.com notes Judge was also the fastest to 300 home runs, having already hit 368 in 1,145 career games. Mark McGwire is currently the fastest to 400 at 1,412 games.

Needing just 32 more to reach 400, Judge — who hit 35 home runs before the All-Star break a season ago — will have the record wrapped by the Midsummer Classic.

Los Angeles Dodgers permanently move Roki Sasaki to bullpen

Despite a rough spring, Sasaki — who posted a 15.58 earned run average with 15 walks and 12 strikeouts in 8.2 innings in four spring starts — will begin the season as part of the starting rotation. If his struggles continue, manager Dave Roberts will have no choice but to find another role for the right-hander.  

Sasaki was impressive in nine appearances out of the bullpen last postseason, allowing one earned run in 10.2 innings and earning three saves. A return might be the only way to salvage his MLB future.

Atlanta Braves will be sellers at trade deadline

The season is already cursed. Shortstop Ha-Seong Kim is out with a torn tendon in his right middle finger after falling on ice, while outfielder Jurickson Profar is suspended for the season for a failed PED test.

Things got worse when starting pitcher Spencer Strider (oblique strain) was placed on the injured list Monday, joining fellow pitchers Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep (elbow), who are on the 60-day IL with elbow injuries, and Joey Wentz (knee), who is out for the season. The playoffs will be out of reach by the time the trade deadline nears Aug. 3, giving the Braves an opportunity to unload as they try to shake off a dismal year.

New York Mets outfielder Carson Benge named NL Rookie of the Year

The Mets named Benge, the No. 16 overall prospect according to MLB.com, their Opening Day right fielder, completing a rapid climb for the 2024 first-round pick. Benge started 2025 in High-A, where he played 60 games, before eventually finishing in Triple-A. Overall, he slashed .281/.385/.472 with 15 home runs and 22 stolen bases in 116 games. Benge has been even more impressive in spring training, hitting .366 in 14 games and looking more than ready for the big leagues.

Houston Astros rebound to make playoffs ...

Houston faded during the second half of last season, going 31-35 post-All-Star break to miss the playoffs for the first time since 2016. But with a full season from DH/LF Yordan Alvarez, growth from promising second-year outfielder Cam Smith and more overall consistency from the offense, the Astros will be back to playing October baseball.

... and starting pitcher Hunter Brown receives AL Cy Young Award

Houston's Opening Day starter will also play a key role in the return to the postseason. Brown — who had a 2.39 ERA with 206 strikeouts and 57 walks in 185.1 innings in 2025 — will build on that performance by earning his first Cy Young after finishing third in voting last season.

Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. wins first AL MVP

Witt has a credible argument as the AL's best all-around position player. He hits for power and contact, is great on the basepaths and also an elite fielder. Over the past two seasons, Witt is the only player in the majors with a batting average over .300 and at least 50 home runs and stolen bases apiece. After a runner-up finish to Judge in the 2024 voting, Witt will claim his first AL MVP while pushing the Royals back to the playoffs.

Mets outfielder Juan Soto finishes second in NL MVP voting

We already know who'll win NL MVP. It's not much of a prediction to write that Dodgers designated hitter and starting pitcher Shohei Ohtani, who has won four MVPs in the past five seasons (including three in a row), will add another to his collection this fall. The bigger question is who finishes second, which is where Soto, whose previous best finish was runner-up to Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper in 2021, comes into focus. 

Over the final two months last season, as New York spiraled, Soto thrived. Playing in 52 games, he slashed .293/.420/.596 with 18 home runs and 23 stolen bases. That production will carry over.

Seattle Mariners win AL pennant

The Mariners came up just shy of their first pennant last season, losing the ALCS to the Toronto Blue Jays in seven games. Armed with arguably the American League's top rotation and an elite power hitter in catcher Cal Raleigh, who blasted 60 HRs in 2025, Seattle will write a different ending this October. This season, it will have an extra punch to the lineup with late offseason trade acquisition Brendan Donovan, a utilityman.

Mariners over Dodgers for World Series

In recent years, Las Vegas (2023), Tampa Bay (2021), Los Angeles (2020) and Washington (2019) have won multiple league championships in the same calendar year. Seattle will be the next metro area to accomplish the feat as the Mariners follow the Seattle Seahawks' Super Bowl LX victory with their own parade.

With the SuperSonics potentially also making a comeback as the NBA gets set to vote on league expansion, things couldn't be better for sports fans in the Pacific Northwest. Who are we to suggest the party will end?

Eric Smithling

Eric Smithling is a writer based in New Orleans, LA, whose byline also appears on Athlon Sports. He has been with Yardbarker since September 2022, primarily covering the NFL and college football, but also the NBA, WNBA, men’s and women’s college basketball, NHL, tennis and golf. He holds a film studies degree from the University of New Orleans

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