Analyst shares rough update for Ty Simpson about possibly becoming a first-round draft pick

Following his recent pro-day workout, Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Ty Simpson insisted that he "absolutely" believes he has "done everything" to become a first-round pick during the 2026 NFL Draft. 

Some members of the NFL community disagree with Simpson's assessment. 

How likely is it that Ty Simpson is drafted in the first round? 

For a piece published on Friday, ESPN NFL Draft analyst Matt Miller was asked what percentage chance he would put on Simpson going off the board in the draft's first round. 

"25 percent," Miller responded. 

"As the draft order stands right now," Miller explained, "no team in Round 1 makes sense to me as a Simpson landing spot. No team in the top 10 that needs a quarterback is likely to reach for him, nor should they. Even the Rams are drafting too early at No. 13 overall. Maybe a team trades back into the first round for him, but that's a risky proposition to give up draft capital -- especially if it includes 2027 picks."

Regardless of what former NFL quarterback and current analyst Dan Orlovsky has said about the subject, just about every noteworthy analyst and reporter expects the Las Vegas Raiders will make Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza the draft's first pick. Earlier this week, NFL Network draft analyst and insider Daniel Jeremiah revealed that he has "not talked to anyone" who has Simpson ranked ahead of Mendoza on his or her draft board. 

Some good news for Ty Simpson regarding the draft's first round

It's worth noting that ESPN's Jordan Reid and Field Yates disagree with Miller. Reid thinks there's a 75 percent chance that Simpson will be drafted in the first round, while Yates put it at 90 percent. 

"Alabama's pro day took place Wednesday and multiple scouts in attendance came away impressed with how the ball came off Simpson's hand," Reid added. "'I thought his arm was a little above average on tape, but it's much stronger than I anticipated after seeing him up close,' said an NFC executive."

As of Friday morning, DraftKings Sportsbook had the Arizona Cardinals as the betting favorites at +125 odds to draft Simpson. The New York Jets were second on the list at +145 odds. 

It remains unclear when such a selection could occur.